A month before Trump takes power, Europe flounders in search of a plan

Good morning.

Today, a month before Donald Trump is sworn in as US president, I assess the lack of a tangible plan from Europe to ensure ongoing support to Ukraine. And our Brussels-Budapest duo reports on Hungary’s latest move in its increasingly expensive battle over the rule of law with the European Commission.

This is our last Europe Express of the year! We will be back on January 6. Have a wonderful Christmas break.

Shellshock

A penny for Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s thoughts. The Ukrainian president schlepped to Brussels for a 24-hour meeting marathon with EU and Nato leaders with a simple question: what will Europe do if Donald Trump abandons Ukraine? He leaves without a straight answer.

Context: Trump takes office in a month’s time, and has vowed to stop military aid to Ukraine and force Kyiv into immediate peace talks. Russia has been waging war against the country for almost 34 months, and Moscow’s troops occupy around a fifth of Ukraine’s territory.

At a cosy gathering at Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte’s house that ended around 1am yesterday morning, Zelenskyy heard the leaders of Europe’s most important defence players toss around divergent ideas on how to pledge long-term support to Kyiv.

Some leaders openly disagreed with each other. Some stuck to the well-trodden rhetoric of “whatever it takes”, without providing specific details of what they would be prepared to do.

At a summit of EU leaders yesterday, there was more of the same. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, firmly in campaign mode ahead of February’s parliamentary election where he is pitching himself as a “peace candidate”, startled many of his colleagues with his ultra-cautious remarks.

“Support for Ukraine should be structured in a way so that there is no escalation of the war, a war between Russia and Nato,” Scholz said after the meeting. “At the same time, it has to be strong enough for there to be no dictated peace.”

For every leader who suggested something new, such as deploying troops to Ukraine as trainers, there were others who dismissed such talk. Scholz said there was “no discussion” about boots on the ground, and it would be “a mistake to negotiate this in detail right now”.

Scholz also suggested that Ursula von der Leyen should be the person leading the EU’s negotiation with Trump on these topics.

“The mood in the room was one of strong determination . . . now is not the time to speculate about different scenarios. Now is the time to strengthen Ukraine for all scenarios,” said European Council president António Costa, who chaired yesterday’s discussions. “This is the message that we gave to President Zelenskyy.”

Yet Zelenskyy was withering in response. Promises from his European allies would “not be sufficient” to protect Ukraine without the US joining them, he said. “It is impossible to discuss only with the Europeans.”

Chart du jour: Regulation nation

Rightwing lawmakers across Europe accuse the EU’s ambitious green and digital agendas of punishing citizens and businesses, as well as raising costs.

Doubling down

Starved of EU funds and in the midst of a technical recession, Hungary is upping the ante with Brussels in the hopes of obtaining political dividends, write Paola Tamma and Marton Dunai.

Context: In June the European Court of Justice fined Budapest €200mn due to its asylum rules breaching EU law, plus €1mn per day until Hungary amends them. The money is currently being held back from regular EU payouts to the country, amounting to a total of around €400mn by the end of the year.

Viktor Orbán’s government late on Wednesday passed a decree saying that “further steps are necessary about the verdict”. The ECJ ruling cannot be appealed, but the decree nonetheless calls for compensation.

“The judgment of the European Court of Justice is outrageous” and “suffers from several errors”, said Hungarian justice minister Bence Tuzson. “If an EU institution causes damage to a member state, and it caused damage by making this decision, a compensation lawsuit can be initiated.”

The threat of legal action comes after the European Commission earlier this week rejected Hungary’s request to unblock parts of EU funds that were frozen over separate concerns on the rule of law, which Brussels says have not been addressed sufficiently.

Some €19bn allotted to Hungary remains blocked, due to concerns over corruption and judicial independence.

The commission did not respond to a request for comment.

What to watch today

1. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal in Berlin.

2. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán meets Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev and in Sofia.

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