Quantum computing sounds cool. Losing money on overpriced quantum stocks isn’t cool, however.
In twin columns last month, I argued that two of the most popular quantum computing stocks, Rigetti Computing (RGTI 5.95%) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS 6.54%), are both best avoided. As 2026 begins, I still think this today.
Here’s why.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Rigetti Computing
Today’s Change
(-5.95%) $-1.49
Current Price
$23.48
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$7.7B
Day’s Range
$23.26 – $25.20
52wk Range
$6.86 – $58.15
Volume
997K
Avg Vol
43M
Gross Margin
-6849.48%
Rigetti calls itself a “pioneer in full-stack quantum computing,” having developed, sold, and operated quantum computers for clients “since 2017.” But as I argued last month, while “Rigetti’s a real business, with real revenue. It’s just not a business with a lot of revenue.”
Rigetti’s not a big enough business that it actually needs to break out its revenue by business divisions. But if Rigetti had divisions, then selling quantum computers would be its biggest business (bigger than developing or operating systems, at least). Over the three quarters of 2025 reported so far, Rigetti generated $5.2 million in revenue, 39% less than it collected in the first three quarters of 2024.
In October 2025, Rigetti announced two sales of quantum computing systems that, combined, would generate more revenue than it generated in all of the first three quarters of 2025 combined — $5.7 million. Problem is, Rigetti won’t book that revenue until the first half of 2026. Thus, when Rigetti finally gets around to reporting its Q4 2025 results in March, those sales won’t be part of the results. They won’t show up before Q1, or more likely Q2 of fiscal 2026, in fact.
Long story short, when Rigetti reports its Q4 2025 numbers at the start of calendar year 2026, it’s probably going to “miss” analyst forecasts for $7.6 million in revenue. With sales continuing to decline, it’ll probably also miss forecasts for a halving of its net losses to $0.03 per share.
Misses on both top and bottom lines won’t be good news for Rigetti stock. You’re better off avoiding it for now.
2. D-Wave Quantum
Today’s Change
(-6.54%) $-1.79
Current Price
$25.64
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$9.0B
Day’s Range
$25.23 – $27.18
52wk Range
$4.45 – $46.75
Volume
1.2M
Avg Vol
38M
Gross Margin
82.82%
Somewhat larger than Rigetti in market capitalization, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS 6.54%) is still quite small in size as a business. After years of plugging away in the single-digit millions-of-dollars for revenue, D-Wave sales surged in 2025 — but still totaled less than $22 million through the first three quarters of that year.
D-Wave calls itself “a leader in the development and delivery of quantum computing systems, software, and services.” The sizable improvement in sales this year — more than a three-fold increase — suggests the stock has some momentum behind it as well.
That said, most analysts agree D-Wave probably ended 2025 with less than $26 million in total revenue, and no profit at all. That’s not a lot of revenue to support the stock’s ultra-optimistic $9.7 billion market capitalization — especially given that Wall Street analysts don’t forecast D-Wave turning profitable before 2030 at the earliest.
Much like Rigetti, I view D-Wave as more hype than substance, and I think most of the stock’s gains are attributable to momentum. Until I see D-Wave earn some real profits, D-Wave stock remains a sell for me.
