GREEN BAY RECEIVES:
- Round 1, 2022: No. 7 overall
NEW YORK RECEIVES:
- Round 1, 2022: No. 22 overall
- Round 2, 2022: No. 59
- Round 2, 2023
Should the Jets trade for a wide receiver prior to the draft (or during … ahem, Deebo Samuel), or select a non-wideout (or player who is not atop the Packers’ board) at No. 4 overall, then the seventh pick stands to become a prime target for several suitors. In fact, it could shape the entire draft — especially considering the number of teams with multiple first-rounders this year. I am well aware that Green Bay has not historically drafted receivers in the first round, but context is always key. The Packers have the league’s reigning MVP (two years running) at quarterback and play in the NFC, which now has fewer top-tier QBs, reinforcing the urgency and proximity to win now.
The Packers had the tremendous fortune of landing Davante Adams in the second round in 2014, but they can’t rely on catching that kind of break again. The strategy that creates the highest probability for success is to act on the reality of supply and demand in this situation, which means leapfrogging the Falcons (who also need a receiver) at No. 8 to get the wideout of their choice. Green Bay lands its guy and still has two selections (Nos. 28, 53) in the range my models identify as the most likely to yield high-value, above-average players in this draft (Nos. 21-72).
As for the Giants, this trade gives them four selections in that aforementioned sweet-spot range. With so much depth in the 2022 class, there are a whole bunch of prospects who in other years would be rated between Nos. 20-32. So there’s a lot more projected value this year in the late-first-round-to-early-third-round (first eight picks) range relative to previous drafts. In this trade scenario, the Giants, who have a number of needs, still select at fifth overall and then four times in the desired range — plus, they get a second-round pick in 2023 as the cherry on top.
