The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025. [emphasis, links added]
Now that hurricane season is winding down, we are able to start concluding and summarizing the season: it’s going to come in as near-normal activity. The forecast made earlier this year was a bit on the hyped side.
Hurricane season forecasts have not really improved, despite all the claims that models are better than ever:
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.
“This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”
NOAA’s forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, was a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency forecast a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 were forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
Near-average season
According to data from the University of Colorado, the season is now slightly above average (November 7) in terms of accumulated cyclone energy:
Though more activity may occur before the end of the month, currently, there are no signs of tropical storms in the Atlantic.
Global Overall Trend
Alarmists have claimed that tropical storm activity would increase with the onset of global warming.
Though the globe has mildly warmed over the past 50 years, global cyclone activity has not escalated as feared:
Quite to the contrary, the overall trend has been somewhat downward since 1990, with no real trend since 1970:
The reality hasn’t cooperated with the climate-alarmist hype. It’s been a disappointing season for catastrophe prophets.
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