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Rising temperatures threaten to kill millions of European city dwellers by 2099 without “stringent” efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change, new research has warned.
In the most extreme scenario, global warming would lead to 2.3mn additional temperature-related deaths, mostly in southern European cities such as Athens, Madrid and Rome. But those fatalities could be cut by at least two-thirds if preventive measures were taken, said the forecast for 854 urban centres across 30 countries on the continent.
The paper published in Nature Medicine on Monday highlights the increased risk of heat deaths. Urban dwellers are seen as more at risk because of the “heat island effect” in cities, which are typically hotter than rural areas because of factors including warmth-absorbing infrastructure and a lack of vegetation.
As the continent grapples with intense heatwaves, cold weather will no longer be the biggest cause of temperature-related deaths in much of Europe, according to the study. Instead, in the worst-case scenario between 2015 and 2099, the cities surveyed are forecast to suffer 5.83mn extra heat deaths, far outweighing a 3.48mn fall in cold weather-related fatalities.
“Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat,” said Pierre Masselot, the study’s lead author and an assistant professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. “This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire.”
The results debunked theories that climate change might be a net lifesaver in Europe by reducing the number of people dying from cold, said Antonio Gasparrini, the paper’s senior author and a professor at LSHTM.
“This study provides compelling evidence that the steep rise in heat-related deaths will far exceed any drop related to cold, resulting in a net increase in mortality across Europe,” Gasparrini said.
With little or no mitigation or adaptation, almost a quarter of a million extra temperature-related deaths are predicted in Barcelona and more than 100,000 each in Rome, Naples, Madrid and Milan. Athens, Valencia, Marseille, Bucharest and Genoa make up the rest of the 10 most affected cities in terms of predicted fatalities.
The total estimated number of additional temperature-related deaths would fall below 650,000 in scenarios where there was climate change mitigation and adaptation, the researchers predict.
After a spate of years with record-breaking temperatures, some cities have begun rolling out measures aimed at helping populations deal with rising temperatures. This includes increased planting of trees and shrubbery, cooling centres that act as refuges from extreme heat and new planning laws to make buildings more heat-resistant. Cities such as Athens have hired chief heat officers.
Scientists at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre in 2022 found that surface temperatures in cities were sometimes up to 10-15C higher than surrounding rural areas.
Extreme heat increased the risk not only of death but of many chronic conditions including cardiovascular disease, miscarriages and poor mental health, said Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at Wellcome.
“Europe, like the rest of the world, is heating up, and we’re not properly prepared for the effects this will have on our health,” Thomson said. “Changes like adding green spaces and waterways can help cool urban areas down.”
Last year, a report from Copernicus, the EU’s earth observation programme, and the World Meteorological Organization said deaths linked to hot weather in Europe had risen 30 per cent over the past two decades. It warned of the “profound impact of heat stress on public health”.
Tim Osborn, director of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit, said the latest study “break[s] new ground” by showing how climate change will affect people “very unevenly”.
He added: “Put bluntly, the increase in hot weather will kill more people than the decrease in cold weather will save.”
Data visualisation by Martin Stabe
