“The clock is ticking,” was one of Michel Barnier’s favourite lines as the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, when he perfected the art of using deadlines to strengthen his hand. Now, as France’s prime minister, he is the one running out of time.
“He has until Monday,” far-right leader Marine Le Pen warned Barnier this week as she demanded further concessions on his contentious 2025 budget that aims to start trimming France’s yawning public deficit. Barnier had just given ground by scrapping a planned rise in electricity tax — a key demand of Le Pen’s Rassemblement National party. But Le Pen wants more.
Her ultimatum has underlined the RN’s hold on Barnier’s minority government, which has relied on the far-right party’s tacit support since he took office in September. Le Pen must now decide whether to wring further concessions from Barnier or join leftwing lawmakers in toppling him.
“She wants to send a signal and show that she is not a crutch of Macronism and the government, but a resolved opponent who is winning concessions in favour of the French people, particularly relating to purchasing power,” said Brice Teinturier, deputy executive director of polling firm Ipsos.
“Will she go as far as a no-confidence vote? It was possible, now it’s probable but it’s not certain.”
On Monday Barnier is likely to push a financing package for social security, an adjunct to the budget, through parliament using a constitutional procedure that bypasses a vote but leaves the government open to a no-confidence motion. Le Pen is demanding more changes to protect pensions and scale back medical benefits for irregular migrants
Barnier’s demise would deepen France’s political paralysis. The assembly is fractured into three incompatible blocs, leaving few options for a stable government. Fresh elections cannot be held before July, one year after President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament — a disastrous gamble that left him and his centrist allies weakened.
If Barnier were toppled, Macron could himself come under pressure to quit before his second and last term ends in 2027. Le Pen is likely to stand again — her fourth and possibly strongest chance to win the presidency.
So far, Le Pen has occupied the position of kingmaker to the government, spelling out RN’s policy “red lines” she says Barnier must respect: protecting living standards, cracking down on immigration, and a shift to some proportional representation in parliamentary election. But the concessions were slow to arrive.
A senior RN official said Barnier had for months refused to engage on the budget, only granting Le Pen a meeting last Monday. The prime minister’s opening remark to the far-right leader was “this is not a negotiation”, the official said.
“He initially said he would take into account our views, but that has not occurred,” said Edwige Diaz, a RN lawmaker. “Impatience is now mounting.”
Le Pen does not just want concessions, she wants recognition for extracting them like any other party. Barnier said he had retreated on the electricity levy because “practically everybody” had demanded it.
“His insistence on saying it is not a concession to the RN for me presents a democratic problem,” Le Pen told Le Monde. “They want our votes but not our faces.”
Facing resistance from all sides, Barnier’s strategy has been to dramatise the situation, warning of a “severe storm” in financial markets if he is brought down. His calculation appears to be that Le Pen, who has spent years trying to detoxify her brand and turn the RN into a respectable party, cannot risk being blamed for a bond market meltdown.
The political uncertainty around the budget and Barnier’s government has driven up the cost of French borrowing, which this week briefly surpassed Greece’s for the first time in decades.
“[Barnier’s team] keep saying your voters will punish you,” said the senior RN official. “They are thinking for us. But we know our voters better than them.”
Diaz said the views of RN supporters had shifted during the budget wrangling.
“Initially there was a desire for stability but people have come to see Barnier negatively,” she said.
An Ipsos opinion poll published on Thursday found 53 per cent of respondents were in favour of a no-confidence vote — among RN supporters, that rose to 67 per cent.
If the government were to fall, many French voters would agree with Le Pen and blame Macron and his decision to hold snap elections for the current chaos, said Teinturier. However, he added that forcing out Barnier’s government would not come without some cost to Le Pen’s presidential ambitions.
“There is a section of the right, Les Républicains voters [Barnier’s conservative party], who could blame Marine Le Pen for taking part in a situation where interest rates climbed to the detriment of France. She needs this little section of the right to win the presidential election,” he said.
Some analysts have speculated that another factor in Le Pen’s calculations is her trial for allegedly embezzling EU funds when paying staff. The verdict is due at the end of March. If found guilty, judges could bar her from elected office for up to five years, even before the appeals run out.
“Marine Le Pen could say to herself, rightly or wrongly, that it would be even more difficult for judges to deliver such a verdict if we are in the middle of a possible presidential election,” Teinturier said.
Le Pen shows no sign of blinking. On Friday, she made new demands, saying it was “unacceptable” that Barnier’s retreat on the electricity levy, which will cost €3.4bn, together with other concessions made to other parties, had not been offset by savings elsewhere.
She claimed to have presented Barnier with alternative plans including cuts to overseas aid, a reduction in France’s contribution to the EU budget and the introduction of a tax on share buy-backs.
Beyond the showdown over budgetary lines, Le Pen has a bigger objective, say her allies: showing Barnier — and any other premier Macron may nominate — that as the biggest party in parliament, the RN is now a political force that can no longer be ignored or treated as a pariah.
“They still haven’t accepted that they lost the election, and the extent of the political power that the RN now has,” said the senior RN official referring to Macron’s centrist allies and the centre right. “They only engaged with us on the budget when their backs were against the wall.”
