The strength of President-elect Trump’s influence over the razor-thin House Republican majority will get another major test Friday, when Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) aims to be reelected as Speaker.
Even with Trump’s endorsement of Johnson on Monday — “He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN,” Trump said of Johnson — the Speaker remains in a precarious position ahead of the vote on the opening day of the new Congress.
Several House Republicans have continued to withhold support for the Louisiana Republican despite the stamp of approval from the president-elect.
One Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.), has pledged to vote for a candidate other than Johnson, citing anger with how the Speaker handled government funding, Ukraine aid and other issues. And Massie signaled in a post on the social platform X on Monday that Trump’s endorsement is not changing his mind.
“I respect and support President Trump, but his endorsement of Mike Johnson is going to work out about as well as his endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan. We’ve seen Johnson partner with the democrats to send money to Ukraine, authorize spying on Americans, and blow the budget,” Massie said.
Johnson can only afford one Republican defection in the Jan. 3 Speaker election, assuming all members are present and voting for a candidate. The House’s incoming 215 Democrats are all expected to vote for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), and Republicans are expected to have 219 members in attendance that day.
Several other Republicans are not explicitly opposing Johnson but stopping short of saying they will vote for him in light of the statement from Trump.
Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) said Monday on Fox News that he still wanted to speak with Johnson, “because there are some issues I think that need to be worked out, specifically dealing with the budget issues.” Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) posted on X that although she understands why Trump is endorsing Johnson, “we still need to get assurances that @SpeakerJohnson won’t sell us out to the swamp.”
Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the chair of the House Freedom Caucus who said after the House passed a controversial stopgap funding bill that he was “undecided on what leadership should look like in the 119th Congress,” remained undecided on the Speakership even after Trump’s endorsement, according to a spokesperson.
As he aims to shore up support, Johnson has been making calls and reaching out to those who have expressed skepticism about his Speakership, according to a source familiar with his activities.
A spokesperson for Trump did not respond to requests for comment about why Trump announced his support for Johnson on Monday, or if he would personally reach out to GOP holdouts — something that House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) had urged Trump to do during a Sunday Fox Business appearance.
Johnson’s handling of a bumpy end-of-year, short-term funding package not only fueled skepticism of his leadership from members, but from Trump himself.
Two sources close to Trump’s orbit said the president-elect was frustrated by how the recent government funding battle, which concluded without a debt ceiling increase that Trump demanded, played out, and it led to discussions about whether he would back Johnson at all.
But it also showed the limits of Trump’s influence over congressional Republicans.
Trump made a last-minute demand for Republicans to raise the debt ceiling as part of the bill, but a number of House Republicans are opposed to raising the debt ceiling without also implementing spending cuts. Thirty-eight House Republicans voted against a version of the stopgap that included a debt limit hike.
But the overwhelming Republican desire to quickly get to work on Trump’s legislative agenda could be a very powerful force in helping Johnson keep hold of the gavel.
The same sources who said Trump was frustrated with Johnson noted there was no clear alternative to the current Speaker, and they argued a messy fight over the gavel would threaten to delay the Jan. 6 certification of his victory and potentially undermine Trump’s legislative agenda in the early weeks of his presidency.
Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Trump’s first pick for attorney general who withdrew from consideration amid misconduct allegations, posted on X that Trump‘s endorsement of Johnson was “‘art of the deal’ level practicality.”
“We could never have held up McCarthy two years ago for concessions if a Trump certification hung in the balance. Now, it does,” Gaetz posted.
With Trump’s endorsement, other prominent conservatives are expected to rally to Johnson’s side. Elon Musk, who has proven to be an influential figure on Capitol Hill in recent weeks, posted Monday on X that Johnson has his “full support.”
Matthew Boyle, the connected Washington bureau chief for the right-wing Breitbart News Network who had advocated for replacing Johnson in recent weeks, compared Trump’s support for Johnson to his nominations for Cabinet positions.
“Trump’s endorsement of Mike Johnson for Speaker should be treated like all other nominations and appointments. He deserves to have his choice. Plain and simple, agree or disagree, it’s Trump’s decision. He’s the president. He won in the face of adversity,” Boyle posted on X. “So everyone on the right should do everything they can to help Trump. I have my disagreements with Johnson on a number of fronts, but the president has spoken.”
Still, Trump’s past endorsements in fraught Speaker races have not always been decisive or managed to sway members who are not closely aligned with him.
Trump publicly backed former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) even before Republicans won control of the House in the 2022 midterms, but McCarthy struggled to secure the votes needed among GOP members. Even after Trump reiterated his support for McCarthy after three failed votes, it took 12 more rounds of voting before the California Republican secured the gavel.
The president-elect waded into the GOP’s Speaker battle in October 2023 after McCarthy was ousted, with mixed results. He initially endorsed his ally, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), but Jordan could not garner enough support from more moderate members who opposed his candidacy. Trump eventually backed Johnson as Republicans rallied around him to replace McCarthy.
