In 2012, three men on a late-night walk in Toronto discussed plans to conduct a major terrorist attack. Two of the men were al Qaeda-linked radicals. The third was an undercover FBI agent, secretly recording the conversation.
Their scheme: Drill a hole on the path of the Maple Leaf train traveling between Toronto and New York City, derail the passenger cars and kill as many civilians as possible.
An unprecedented level of cooperation between 15 U.S. and Canadian agencies halted the men in their tracks, thwarting an attack that would have killed up to 300 people.
Today, less than 100 days into the second Trump administration, the survival of Five Eyes — the U.S.-U.K.-Canada-Australia-New Zealand intelligence-sharing alliance crucial to stopping the Maple Leaf plot — has been thrown into question.
This week’s revelation that The Atlantic Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg was accidentally added to a Trump administration group chat discussing highly sensitive military information will undoubtedly raise questions among America’s allies about the basic operational security practices of not only Washington’s intelligence apparatus but the entire federal government.
However, the Trump administration’s threats to Five Eyes emerged far before the now infamous “Houthi PC small group” Signal chat.
In the days leading up to Tulsi Gabbard’s confirmation as Director of National Intelligence, British security officials voiced concern to the United Kingdom’s Telegraph about Gabbard’s warm views toward Russia, calling the Democrat-turned-Republican former congresswoman an “apologist.”
During her combative Senate hearings, Gabbard repeatedly refused to call Edward Snowden a traitor, raising questions about the possibility of another Snowdenesque intelligence leak occurring under her tenure — one that could easily include sensitive intelligence shared by Five Eyes partners.
Additionally, Gabbard told senators that she questioned American intelligence about the now-deposed Assad regime’s culpability in chemical weapons attacks because she feared that it was being “used as a pretext” for an American regime-change operation against the former Syrian dictatorship.
Gabbard’s admission to her prior politicization of intelligence assessments mirrors concern raised by former Canadian intelligence officials, who have emphasized the risk of the Trump White House’s political influence leaking into America’s intelligence apparatus.
Similar anxiety has been stoked by Kash Patel, President Trump’s newly minted FBI director. Patel’s promises to “rebuild” America’s top law enforcement agency have raised domestic and international concerns alike of a politicization of the FBI, exacerbated by the appointment of right-wing podcaster and radio host Dan Bongino to be Patel’s deputy.
Of significant importance to Five Eyes partners is Patel’s vow to scale back the FBI’s foreign intelligence activities. The FBI increased its intelligence capacity following 9/11 to combat terrorism and promote intelligence sharing — efforts essential to foiling attacks like the Maple Leaf plot.
In February, reports emerged that Peter Navarro, Trump’s senior counselor, proposed expelling Canada from Five Eyes. Navarro’s plan, which he swiftly denied, was the most flagrant threat to the future of the most powerful intelligence alliance in the world. In the weeks following, the Trump administration’s attempts to warm relations with Russia worryingly prompted Five Eyes partners to reconsider intelligence-sharing protocols with the U.S.
Trump’s acrimonious relationship with Five Eyes partners is far from unprecedented. During his first term, the president caused a diplomatic row after accusing British intelligence officials of wiretapping him during the 2016 election, prompting a furious response from London. Similarly, Trump faced a livid Theresa May after sensitive images of the 2017 Manchester Arena attack, shared with U.S. intelligence agencies, were leaked to The New York Times.
Since the first Trump administration, the role of Five Eyes has only become more crucial, evolving its scope far beyond its post-9/11 focus on terror as cooperation between China, Iran, North Korea and Russia — the Axis of Aggression — continues to increase.
Although the U.S. has the most expansive intelligence apparatus within the alliance, Five Eyes members fill critical gaps in America’s worldwide intelligence capabilities, especially in the realms of both signals and human intelligence. By placing the alliance in jeopardy, the Trump administration is weakening the intelligence community’s ability to both keep Americans safe and compete with our adversaries.
At best, without the cooperation of Five Eyes partners, the U.S. would be left to empower its intelligence apparatus to counter domestic and global threats on its own.
At worst, a preventable threat could pass through the intelligence-sharing gap and cause disaster.
Kareem Rifai is a Syrian-American graduate student at the Georgetown Security Studies program.
