Like a mythical Phoenix rising from its own ashes, a very real and deadly nuclear weapons program is in danger of resurrecting itself in Iran.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his hardliners remain undeterred after Israel and the U.S. targeted key nuclear facilities in Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz in June. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, admitted this when he told Bret Baier on Fox News that Tehran “cannot give up our enrichment.”
Araghchi also admitted that Iran’s facilities “have been damaged, seriously damaged, the extent of which is now under evaluation.”
President Trump seized on Araghchi’s talking point. He quickly fired off a Truth Social post declaring, “Fake News CNN should immediately fire their phony ‘reporter’ and apologize to me and the great pilots who ‘OBLITERATED’ Iran’s nuclear sites.”
“Obliterated” is a strong word, especially since Iran’s nuclear weapons program is significantly larger than just three enrichment sites — and Trump’s own intelligence community professes uncertainty about how much of Iran’s program remains.
Likewise, any admission from Araghchi should be treated with skepticism. Although it could be truthful, it also could be intentional deception. After all, Araghchi is the man who repeatedly claimed that Iran’s nuclear program was peaceful.
Earlier in May, while speaking in Qatar, Araghchi claimed that Tehran was not seeking nukes or other weapons of mass destruction. That briefs well, until you consider that at a maximum, no more than 5 percent highly enriched uranium is needed for nuclear fuel power rods, hospital experiments and radiation equipment. Prior to the Israeli and U.S. strikes, Iran had enriched at least 880 pounds of highly enriched uranium to 60 percent according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Relatively speaking, even if it would take some time for Iran to enrich that stockpile to weapons-grade highly enriched uranium (90 percent ) — the amount needed for a modern nuclear missile strike — it could use the 60 percent stockpile it already has to construct Hiroshima-like nuclear bombs.
Iran Watch estimates that Khamenei has enough to build “one or more” of the gun-type bomb known as “Little Boy,” the type of used in Hiroshima. It would only take 132 pounds of uranium enriched to 80 percent.
Simply put, Iran likely still has several nuclear options. It is just a question of which route Khamenei opts to take first — the Little Boy route, or the more complex implosion route that would require enriching uranium to 90 percent? Or is it enough for Iran simply to declare itself a nuclear power?
The answer likely comes down to two key areas. How much fissile material does Iran still have after the airstrikes, and what is Tehran’s remaining centrifuge capacity to continue enriching uranium?
Notably, while much of the media’s attention has been on Khamenei’s stores of 60 percent highly enriched uranium, we cannot overlook Iran’s 20 percent and 5 percent stockpiles. Prior to the June strikes, Tehran had 606 pounds of the former and 12,150 pounds of the latter.
Iran Watch ominously warns that “20 percent enriched uranium is approximately 90% of the way to weapon-grade and Iran’s stockpile would be sufficient to fuel at least two implosion weapons.” Plus, if further enriched, eventually Khamenei’s 5% stockpile could be used to “fuel at least 10 implosion weapons.”
Determining exactly where these stockpiles are located in Iran is job one for U.S. and Israeli intelligence. Are they buried deep inside the rubble of Isfahan, Fordo and Natanz? Or were they moved prior to the strikes?
Vice President JD Vance argued in late June that their location is a moot point —that the only question is whether “Iran enriched the uranium to weapons-grade level, and can they convert that fuel into a nuclear weapon?”
But this is not the case. Yes, Iran’s remaining centrifuge capacity is also key, but so too is understanding how much fissile material remains and how long it will take Teheran to retrieve it and begin enriching anew.
Uranium highly enriched to 60 percent is in a gaseous state and can be stored in cylinders approximately the same size of a scuba tank. Moving or hiding some of them could have been as easy as putting them in the back of a small car or SUV.
Iran is not going to give up its nuclear weapons program. Ever since the strikes, it has remained defiant toward Washington. Therefore, the Trump administration must, at a minimum, assume some or all of Iran’s enriched stockpiles are either retrievable from the rubble or accessible in an unknown location.
Prior to the strikes, Iran Watch reported that Fordow mountain fortress had 2,700 operating gas centrifuges used to enrich uranium. Natanz had 17,000 deep underground and an above-ground facility containing 1,700 gas centrifuges.
The latter above ground facility at Natanz, according to International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi, was destroyed by Israel on June 13. The jury is still out, however, as to how many of Iran’s underground gas centrifuges remain.
Much of Iran’s nuclear weapons program was built covertly. It is highly likely that Iran has multiple undeclared centrifuge sites. If so, Iran producing one or two Little Boy-type nukes could be achieved at a minimum — and if needed, Tehran certainly has the technological know-how to build new centrifuges.
The nuclear ashes of this phoenix are very real. Mythology is not required in order for Iran to resurrect its nuclear weapons program.
Russian nuclear scientists pulled from the facilities prior to the airstrikes will likely return to enable Iran. Other aspects of Iran’s nuclear program were targeted as well by Israel.
Certainly, Tehran’s nuclear ambitions have been set back. For instance, at Isfahan, Iran’s facility that converts enriched uranium gas — a key weaponization component — to metal was partially destroyed by Israel. Nonetheless, it can be easily rebuilt. As Iran Watch notes, “only dual-use industrial equipment” is needed to rebuild this part of Iran’s nuclear phoenix. Other aspects of Iran’s nuclear program were targeted as well by Israel.
Israel eliminated at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists. Additional Israeli strikes hit the Kermanshah ballistic missile facility, the Khondab nuclear reactor (which could be used to produce plutonium), and critical supporting military bases and research facilities all over Iran.
Yet the head of this Phoenix remains Khamenei. Absent regime change, the Islamic Republic of Iran will aggressively continue to pursue nuclear weapons.
Trump did the right thing in striking Iran. Now he must help Israel finish the job and put an end to the Khamenei regime. As we argued previously, Washington cannot negotiate with evil. It must be defeated.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.
