Moldova warns Brussels not to ‘move goalposts’ on EU membership

Good morning. EU ministers negotiated through the night but failed to find agreement on the bloc’s next climate target, leaving them to pick up the high-stakes talks today. The bloc must agree a figure before the UN’s COP climate conference that starts later this week.

Today, I report on Moldova’s president asking Brussels to not “move goalposts” on enlargement and give candidate countries a real “finish line”, and our economy correspondent reports on the IMF’s warning for European countries to veer off their “explosive” debt path.

‘Moving goalposts’

The EU must stick to a clear “finish line,” for prospective members to join the bloc, Moldova’s president has warned Brussels, or it will leave their disillusioned societies to the mercy of adversaries such as Russia.

Context: Moldova and Ukraine became EU candidate countries in 2022 in response to Russia’s war against Kyiv, joining five other countries that had already begun accession negotiations.

The EU yesterday released its annual report into candidate countries’ status. Moldova’s reform efforts were praised, but Hungary’s veto against both Ukraine and Moldova moving ahead has blocked formal progress.

“If this is a marathon, it must have a finish line: not moving goalposts,” Moldova’s President Maia Sandu told an event in Brussels last night.

“We have a narrow but powerful window of opportunity,” Sandu said, setting a target to complete accession negotiations by 2028. “Yet momentum is precious, and must not be lost. Every delay discourages reformers and emboldens those who seek to divide us.”

Commission enlargement chief Marta Kos told the FT that to avoid allowing “Trojan horses” into the bloc, the EU could impose a “transition period; a kind of probation; safeguards” to ensure newcomers do not backslide on pledges to defend the rule of law, judicial independence or media freedom after joining.

Sandu referenced Moldova’s already-enacted justice reforms, crackdown on corruption and its success in defending its democracy from Russian propaganda in recent years, as proof that her government was already living up to EU values.

Diplomats say that Hungary’s block on Ukraine and Moldova’s progress provides useful cover for other EU members wary of the potential risks of expanding the club.

At the same time, officials from candidate countries privately voice irritation at the European Commission for not finding ways to advance their case and put more pressure on member state capitals.

“History teaches us that Europe’s unity was not born of comfort, but of courage,” Sandu said. “And let me ask you this: what would Europe be today if it had stopped with the first six who founded it?”

“Our citizens need to see, through actions, that Europe’s door is open,” Sandu added. “And that Moldova’s place is inside.”

Chart du jour: Boom?

Spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump’s hectoring, European countries are jacking up defence spending. But will it boost the European economy?

Debt trap

European governments should think ahead and slash excess debt through a combination of structural reforms and budget tightening — or risk having to cut back much more in times of crises according to the IMF, writes Paola Tamma.

Context: Sovereign debt in the EU stands on average at around 82 per cent of GDP and rising, with peaks of over 100 per cent in Greece, Italy, France, Belgium and Spain.

Owing to increased spending pressures in areas such as defence and security and on pensions and health because of ageing populations, if left unchecked the debt of the average European country would reach 130 per cent of GDP by 2040, the IMF reckons.

That is “an explosive and exponential debt path”, said Alfred Kammer, the fund’s Europe director.

While EU countries have signed up to reducing excess debt over time, their plans fall short of what’s needed, argues the fund.

Governments in Europe should cut their debt to GDP by 3.5 per cent over five years, with the most indebted ones cutting 5 per cent — something that Kammer recognised would be “difficult”.

France and the Netherlands should charge more for accessing healthcare, while Germany and Slovakia should cut energy subsidies, and Austria and Croatia should cut public wages, he said.

These cuts should be accompanied by structural reforms to areas such as pensions, and a deepening of the EU’s single market. And countries should do it now, as waiting would further add to their debts.

“Waiting is really costly in terms of what the government and the state can afford,” Kammer added.

What to watch today

1. The Nato-Industry Forum opens in Bucharest.

2. French President Emmanuel Macron visits Brazil.

3. EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas visits Cyprus.

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