EU and Nato ministers meet to redraw European security map

Good morning. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said this morning the bloc was “prepared to respond” to Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff blitz. The EU is set to face total tariffs as high as 20 per cent. 

Today, I explain what EU and Nato ministers are discussing in simultaneous meetings today, and our finance correspondent reports on the opening salvos in the battle over the next seven-year EU budget.

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Europe’s top diplomats and defence officials will huddle in separate gatherings today to sketch out how to increase the continent’s defence capabilities, in the face of a revanchist Russia and capricious US.

Context: US President Donald Trump’s move to restore ties with Moscow and his threats to invade Greenland and roll back US protection for Nato allies have sparked a dramatic reassessment of Europe’s security.

EU defence ministers meet this morning in Warsaw, while Nato foreign ministers are gathering in Brussels. How to rapidly re-arm the continent and mitigate a potential US withdrawal will top both agendas.

“To keep the continent safe, Europe must push on defence spending, address capability shortfalls, and work closer with partners. Strengthening European defence also strengthens Nato”, said Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat. She will join the Nato crowd for dinner after chairing the Warsaw talks.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s presence could prompt some awkwardness at the Nato meeting. While the US and Europe agree that the continent needs to take more responsibility for defending itself, they disagree on how to support Ukraine and what a fair peace deal looks like. 

The Trump administration has also imposed trade tariffs on Nato allies, threatened Denmark and Canada with annexation and described Europe as “pathetic” and as “freeloaders”. 

“I know there has been some tough language, and some allies on this side of the pond are worried about the US long-term commitment to Nato”, Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte said yesterday. “The Americans have said time and again they are committed . . . [but] it is logical for Europe to step up even more.”

Meanwhile, ministers in Warsaw will discuss each country’s biggest military gaps and vulnerabilities, and what new weapons they require to meet Nato’s list of requirements.

“What exactly do we need, and how can we translate this into projects?” summed up one EU official. “The more information we are being fed by member states, the better . . . to basically harmonise these requirements.” 

EU leaders aim to agree a list of about 20 specific defence investment projects by a summit in June. Officials say the key gaps for European militaries include air defence systems, long-range missiles and military mobility.

Chart du jour: Out in the cold

As some politicians lean into the Trump worldview, voters across central Europe are growing weary of the costs of supporting Ukraine.

Opening bids

The Netherlands wants the next EU budget to do more with less, firing the opening shot in what will be years-long negotiations over how the bloc’s common funds are raised and spent, writes Paola Tamma.

Context: A proposal for the EU’s next multiannual financial framework is due in July, but countries are already setting out their positions in the hope of influencing the drafting.

In a letter to parliament seen by the Financial Times, the Dutch government said it believed the EU budget “should be modernised by focusing more on strategic priorities like defence, competitiveness and migration”.

This meant “looking at more than just financial resources. It is also necessary to look at what the EU can do less or more efficiently”, the letter stated.

Meanwhile Spain, traditionally in favour of more spending, has asked for a “bigger and bolder” budget, doubling the current size to “at least 2 per cent of the EU’s annual GDP” and including fresh common debt, according to a position paper.

France has followed a similar, slightly more moderate path in its own note. Paris asked that the EU introduce new resources of its own “in order to reduce dependence on national contributions”. It also wants to abolish “rebates” that large net payers get on their contributions to the budget.

The southerners argue that unless countries cough up more money or give Brussels tax-levying powers, the next EU budget would take a hit — given that some €30bn per year will already go towards repaying the joint debt taken up during the pandemic.

But those demands are unlikely to be met by frugal EU countries. The Dutch government’s coalition agreement aims to reduce its EU contributions by €1.6bn in 2028, the first year of the new budget.

Asked whether Sweden was open to higher national income-based contributions or new EU levies, Jessica Rosencrantz, Sweden’s Europe minister, said simply: “No.”

What to watch today

1. Nato foreign ministers meet in Brussels.

2. EU defence ministers meet in Warsaw.

3. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in Madrid.

4. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen visits Greenland.

5. EU-Central Asia summit in Samarkand.

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