How Macron and Meloni are trying to patch up their tattered relationship

Good morning. Poland’s presidential election continues to make waves. Last night Prime Minister Donald Tusk called a vote of no confidence in his own government, in an effort to shore up his shaky coalition in the face of the nationalist’s victory. There are major implications for Brussels, as we wrote yesterday. And this excellent piece argues that Karol Nawrocki’s win is a warning that European liberals must not rest on their laurels.

Today, our Paris and Rome correspondents preview the Macron-Meloni summit, and we hear a pitch for why Nawrocki’s presidency need not mean the Mercosur trade deal is dead.

Frenemies

French President Emmanuel Macron visits Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome today, as they try to repair their tattered relationship and find common ground on subjects ranging from Ukraine to the car industry, write Amy Kazmin and Ian Johnston.

Context: Liberal Macron and rightwing nationalist Meloni have had rocky relations ever since the Italian premier took office in late 2022. Both are key European allies to Ukraine and have strong relations with US President Donald Trump.

According to the Elysée, the pair will discuss security guarantees for Ukraine. But other subjects are on the table for the one-day visit, including the Middle East, the competitiveness of the car and steel industries, migration, and unrest in Libya.

To find agreement over what an Elysée official called a “very broad and very ambitious agenda”, Macron and Meloni will have to get past their personal antipathy.

Visible tensions between the two leaders have flared repeatedly. The latest public spat occurred in Tirana, where Meloni was excluded from a group phone call of key European allies with Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The Italian premier said she had not participated in the call because she was not willing to send troops to Ukraine. But Macron publicly accused Meloni of spreading “false information”, saying the issue of troops had not come up at all with Trump.

Meloni has been a staunch supporter of Kyiv, but France and Italy differ on how to bolster Ukraine’s defences against Russia. Macron, together with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, has promoted the idea of a “coalition of the willing” to support Kyiv, but in Italy there is strong political opposition to deploying troops or increasing military spending, putting Meloni in an awkward spot.

The pair are unlikely to change their position on security guarantees, but Paris is keen to repair relations with an important ally. Macron spoke to Meloni after the Trump call and proposed an in-person meeting, the Elysée official said, as a measure of “respect” and “friendship”.

“Whatever the political persuasion in Europe may be, the president is available to all of our European partners,” added the official.

Chart du jour: Reshoring risks

European countries risk a significant GDP loss if they move too quickly to localise supply chains amid geopolitical tensions, warns the OECD.

Believing in Mercosur

The EU’s landmark trade deal with Mercosur countries won’t be derailed by Poland’s election of a nationalist president, a senior conservative lawmaker tells Alice Hancock.

Context: Nawrocki won the election with support from farming communities, which are opposed to the bloc’s largest-ever trade deal. This has left Tusk with little room for manoeuvre on Mercosur, which still needs to be approved by member states and the European parliament.

France has already said it opposes the deal and other member states including the Netherlands and Austria are sceptical. If Poland joins the ranks of opposition, a blocking minority could form that would kill the deal.

But Jörgen Warborn, a Swedish lawmaker from the European People’s Party who sits on the parliament’s trade committee, said he was confident Mercosur would pass despite the Polish election result.

He said that US President Donald Trump’s volatile tariff regime made it “harder and harder” for political groups and member states to turn their back on trade deals with other regions.

“Mercosur alone will not compensate for the US . . . and we will continue to trade with [the] US but it’s getting more and more complicated. [So] we have to do Mercosur,” Warborn said.

He said it was also critical for the bloc to complete trade negotiations with the Philippines, Indonesia and India, all of which are ongoing — and to ratify its trade deal with Mexico, which has been updated.

Warborn said he was confident that Mercosur would pass in the parliament. All eyes are now on Italy, which has said it has reservations over agricultural imports. If Rome opposes Mercosur, it could leave Mercosur in tatters.

What to watch today

1. Two-day OECD 2025 ministerial council meeting opens in Paris.

2. European parliament president Roberta Metsola and group leaders meet Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in Copenhagen.

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