James Carafano, senior counselor to the president and national security expert at The Heritage Foundation, responsible for its defense and foreign policy team, spoke with VOA’s Ukraine Service about the Trump administration’s goals and considerations in the negotiation process to achieve peace in Ukraine.
He explained that while not a vital interest, a free and independent Ukraine that can defend itself is in America’s best interests, and he outlined how to achieve this goal.
Voice of America: How do you and The Heritage Foundation see ending the war in Ukraine, and what is the strategy behind it?
James Carafano, The Heritage Foundation: It is in America’s best interest that there be a free and independent Ukraine that can defend itself. And the reason for that is the United States. The United States is a global power with global interests and global responsibilities.
A peaceful Europe, whole, free and at peace, that is a vital American interest. The transit Atlantic community is important to us. And the number one threat, physical threat to that is the destabilizing actions of Russia. And the most concerning and destabilizing action is the security of the Eastern front of NATO and Ukraine, that is free and independent, that can defend itself is an obstacle to the Russians, whether it’s in NATO or not.
Now, to be honest, it’s not a vital interest in the United States. For the practical matter is, the United Europe can defend itself and the United States can defend Europe if Ukraine’s occupied by Russia. Now having said that, are we way better off? I mean, way, way better off with the Russians on the other side of Ukraine? And the answer is “absolutely.”
At this point, what is in America’s interest is that the war stops and that there is a ceasefire that is both from a strategic perspective to preserve Ukraine, and that we have to be realistic about Ukraine’s capacity to recover territory that’s been occupied. But also from a humanitarian perspective, and I think this is very deeply reflected in our president. More Ukrainians dying is never going to reconquer all of Ukrainian territory. A war of attrition is never going to create a stronger Ukraine.
I think everybody is focused on what the deal looks like. I think the deals are relevant. Stopping the war is the objective. The real question is, what do we do the day after the war to ensure there’s a free and independent Ukraine in the future?
VOA: The defense secretary said we don’t want Minsk 3.0. Are we falling into the trap of Munich 2.0, where we appease the dictator, give away territories, embolden the aggressor, and end up in a world war?
Carafano: I don’t think that’s the peace that the U.S. envisions. So, I’ll tell you what appeasement would be. Appeasement would be giving the Russians something at the negotiating table that they didn’t win on the battlefield. That’s appeasement.
Recognizing that the Russians have territory they have and the inability of the Ukraine [forces] to retake that territory — maybe they trade territory, I don’t know — that’s called being realistic.
VOA: If Russia is allowed to keep its spoils of war, what message would it send to other would-be aggressors?
Carafano: That Russia has failed. Russia’s goal was to conquer and destroy Ukraine. It failed. Russia’s goal was to have NATO fall apart. It failed. If Russia is stopped in Ukraine, and look what they have achieved, they’ve achieved some marginal territorial gains at the cost of destroying the Russian army, crippling the Russian economy, and making themselves a global pariah. If that’s a victory, it’s a kind of really weird Pyrrhic victory.
VOA: Then, why would [Defense Secretary] Pete Hegseth articulate these concessions?
Carafano: They’re not concessions. They are statements of reality. We all know it’s true. If you give Putin something at the negotiation table that he wasn’t able to take on the battlefield, that is a concession. So, if for example you said, Ukraine has to give up the sovereignty of its territory even its occupied territory, I would say that’s a really bad deal. That’s a concession. We have never ever forced any country to actually give up the sovereignty of its territory.”
VOA: What about [Ukraine`s membership] in NATO? Here is a counterargument: Why Russia should have a veto power over NATO?
Carafano: First of all, Hegseth has never said Russia should have a veto power over the entry of Ukraine into NATO. Hegseth has said, “This is not going to be part of the negotiation and Ukraine is not going to get into NATO now.” That’s no different from the Biden policy and that’s actually just a reflection of reality. NATO is a consensus organization. Every member has to agree. Every member does not agree. So, we all know, the Russians know, we know, everybody in NATO knows, Ukraine is not going to get NATO membership now.”
VOA: What about the future?
Carafano: He didn’t say that Ukraine shouldn’t join NATO in the future. He just said that NATO membership is not going to be part of the negotiation.
VOA: So, the main issue here is security guarantees.
Carafano: That’s also wrong. Somehow that we’re going to say something that’s going deter Putin in the future. That’s nonsense and ridiculous. What’s going to deter Putin in the future is, does Ukraine have the capacity to defend itself?
VOA: So how do we deter the Russians?
Carafano: We have a Ukraine as a country that can defend itself and that is free, and its economy grows, and it builds a defense industrial base. And we strengthen NATO because that will equally deter the Russians.
And we do the other things, which by the way Donald Trump is going to do already, whether there’s a peace deal or not. Donald Trump is going to put a lot of pressure on the Russians. He’s going to lower the price of oil. He’s going to increase sanctions. He’s going to [do] a lot of things that are going to hamstring the Russian economy. Russia is going to be weaker. He’s going to do a lot of things to go after the Iranians. So, the Iranians are going to have a lot less capacity to support the Russians. He’s going to do a lot of things to put a lot of pressure on the Chinese.
The Chinese are going to be less able to support the Russians. Donald Trump can do a lot to North Korea.
Regardless of what happens in the actual peace deal in Ukraine, Trump is going to do a lot to the Russians, the Chinese, the North Koreans and the Iranians that really diminishes their capacity to sustain this war.
