August is a month of remembrance for Japan. On August 6, 1945, Japan became the first (and so far only) country in the world that has ever been struck by an atomic bomb. This was quickly followed by a second atomic bombing on August 9. Then August 15 marks the date of Japan’s unconditional surrender to the Allied Forces, officially ending World War II. This year marks the 80th anniversary of the war and destruction.
Japan’s postwar history was a remarkable story of a nation’s rebirth and reconstruction. Having vowed to strive to “occupy an honorable place in international community” in its Constitution – and prohibiting itself from resorting to war as a means to settle disagreements with other countries – Japan has become one of the staunchest supporters of the international order, institutions, and norms that were created after World War II. Placing its bilateral alliance with the United States at the core of its foreign policy, Japan has striven to fulfill the role of “a rule-promotor, a commons’ guardian and an effective partner and ally to the U.S. and other democracies,” as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe put it in 2013.
Indeed, Japan’s postwar foreign policy embodies its tireless – and continuing – efforts in this endeavor. Despite persistent economic stagnation, Japan is the third largest financial contributor to the United Nations, only after the United States and China. It also is one of the top providers of Official Development Assistance. Both distinctions are fitting for a country that remains one of the most powerful economies in the world.
Also, as the only country in the world that experienced the catastrophic damage of the atomic bomb, Japan has consistently been among the leading voices to push for nuclear disarmament. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru reaffirmed Japan’s commitment to ultimately achieve a “world without nuclear weapons” when he spoke at the peace memorial ceremonies in Hiroshima and Nagasaki earlier this month.
Looking at Japan’s postwar foreign policy, the Japan-U.S. alliance has undergone the greatest transformation since the two countries signed their original mutual security treaty in 1951, which was later revised into its current form in 1960. What once was a lopsided alliance between the United States as “protector” and Japan as the “protected,” in exchange for hosting a U.S. military presence, has evolved into a much more equitable partnership. So far, the alliance has demonstrated a remarkable resilience, adapting to the changing reality of geostrategic environment from the Cold War to the post-Cold War through the 21st century.
However, as Japan reflects on the last eight decades, it also finds itself at a crossroad, both domestically and externally.
Domestically, the so-called “1955 system,” which consistently provided stable political leadership under the dominant rule of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), has been showing signs of atrophy in recent years. The LDP’s undeniable decline following its electoral setbacks in three consecutive elections, coupled with a proliferation of small parties (none of which enjoys enough voter support to replace the LDP as a new governing force), strongly suggests that Japan will enter a period of muddling through with weak political leadership with frequent leadership changes.
Meanwhile, Japan’s economy continues to struggle, as inflation outpaces the rise in people’s wages. With a declining population and a society that is aging at an accelerating rate, Japan is also struggling to deal with enduring issues such as immigration, diversity, and gender equality.
The political, economic, and societal uncertainties at home could not have hit Japan at a worse time. Today, the country finds itself having to navigate uncharted waters as the international order undergoes tectonic shifts. With the U.S. abdicating its noblesse oblige with Trump administration’s “America First” policy and its tariff war against allies, partners, and foes alike, the resilience of the post-World War II liberal international order and the strength of multinational institutions are increasingly being questioned.
The deteriorating environment in the Middle East and protracted war between Russia and Ukraine has been accompanied by increasingly close strategic alignment among North Korea, China, Russia, and Iran. Add to that declining confidence in the postwar multinational framework, and these factors all point to a inevitable reality: anchoring its foreign policy in a robust Japan-U.S. alliance no longer sufficiently serves Tokyo’s interest.
In the years immediately followed World War II, Japan’s policy was led by the Yoshida Doctrine, focusing on economic development by relying on the Japan-U.S. alliance for security. As the world searched for a post-9/11 adjustment to the international order, the late Abe Shinzo offered visions for Japan such as the “Proactive Contribution to International Peace” and “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”
Will Ishiba be able to offer a forward-looking vision that can guide Japan through domestic and international uncertainty at this important time of reflection for Japan? His ultimate political fate may depend on it.
