Amazon could see up to $10 billion in profits go up in smoke because of Trump tariffs

Even the cash printing press that is Amazon Prime won’t be able to blunt the profit blow to Amazon (AMZN) from President Trump’s new tariffs.

Amazon could see a $5 billion to $10 billion annualized operating profit hit from higher first-party merchandise costs due to tariffs, Goldman Sachs tech analyst Eric Sheridan warned in a note Friday afternoon.

Assuming no mitigating factors such as cost cuts or vendor negotiations, Sheridan estimated that Amazon’s US merchandise costs would soar by 15% to 20%.

“We believe that Amazon investors are (and will remain) focused on the potential financial impact of the reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump on April 2,” Sheridan said.

Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

President Trump unveiled a baseline tariff rate of 10% that will go into effect on April 5 in a White House spectacle on Wednesday dubbed Liberation Day.

A higher tariff rate will start on April 9 for about 60 countries that the administration considers to be the worst trade offenders.

Some of those nations are important sourcing and business regions for large US companies, such as Amazon and its rivals Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT). China, for example, will see reciprocal tariffs of 34%.

The reciprocal tariffs are on top of existing duties, such as the 20% tax Trump imposed on Chinese goods earlier, bringing the total rate on goods from the country to 54%.

China hit back at Trump today, announcing 34% tariffs on US products.

Amazon’s stock has dropped nearly 7% in the two days following the announcement of Trump’s tariff scheme. The “Magnificent Seven” member’s stock performance since then is in the middle of the pack. All Magnificent Seven components are down, led by an 11% tumble in Tesla (TSLA).

Shares of Amazon are now down 20% year to date.

Sheridan held firm with a Buy rating and $255 price target. The target price assumes about 43% upside from current levels.

The veteran Goldman tech analyst thinks Amazon will move to offset the tariffs through a series of measures.

“These potential offsets include negotiating with vendors to avoid having to bear 100% of the higher input costs, increasing prices on certain items for customers, and mix shifts in the vendor base and products sold on the platform towards items that face lower tariffs (or US domestic alternatives),” Sheridan explained.

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.