In today’s rapidly evolving international landscape, the concept of a “pivotal state” is gaining renewed attention. As the global order transitions into a phase of intensified great-power rivalry, particularly between the United States and China, countries that can maintain strategic autonomy while influencing regional and global power dynamics are emerging as vital players.
South Korea has, with its advanced economy, vibrant democracy, strategic geographic position, and growing soft power, all the essential ingredients to play such a role. Yet, under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, Korea has drifted from this potential, becoming overly reliant on one side of the geopolitical spectrum.
Now, however, with the political tide turning and the possibility of Lee Jae-myung ascending to the presidency, Korea has a real opportunity to reset its course and finally step into the role of a true pivotal state.
A pivotal state is not merely a middle power, but a country that actively shapes the balance in great-power politics. Unlike satellite states that gravitate around dominant powers, a pivotal state maintains a strategic center of gravity of its own. It responds flexibly to shifting international dynamics, refuses to become a vassal of larger powers and uses diplomacy and autonomy to enhance its national interests.
Examples of such countries include India and Brazil – states that pursue independent foreign policies and often play both sides when necessary, leveraging their positions for national gain without being fully subsumed into any alliance system. These nations do not just survive the global power competition – they shape it.
Missed opportunity under Yoon
When President Yoon Suk-yeol came to power in 2022, he proclaimed Korea’s ambition to become a “global pivotal state.” At face value, this was a welcome shift from past administrations that often wavered between great powers. Yoon promised bold, principled diplomacy that would elevate Korea’s standing on the global stage.
However, in execution, this vision became more rhetoric than reality. Instead of striking a balance between competing powers, the Yoon administration veered sharply toward unconditional alignment with the United States.
It enthusiastically embraced the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, tightened security and intelligence cooperation with Washington and Tokyo, and made highly visible moves such as hosting extended deterrence dialogues and participating in anti-China rhetoric.
This foreign policy posture, while arguably addressing immediate security concerns, came at the expense of Korea’s strategic autonomy. Moreover, by choosing clear alignment in a world that is increasingly multipolar, Korea forfeited its ability to mediate, influence or act as a bridge between diverging global interests. In doing so, it reduced itself from a potential rule-shaper to a rule-follower.
It alienated not only China – its largest trading partner – but also developing nations that value non-alignment and autonomy. The Yoon administration’s vision of a pivotal Korea turned out to be a paradox: how can a nation claim the mantle of a global pivot while acting as a strategic extension of another great power?
Why now is the time
There are several reasons why now is the right moment for South Korea to have a true strategic autonomy. The global power structure is fragmenting. The Cold War’s rigid bipolarity is long gone. Even the current US–China rivalry is increasingly complicated by the rise of influential players like India, Russia, Turkey, and Brazil.
This emerging multipolarity offers middle powers like Korea a rare and valuable space to maneuver – provided they have the strategic vision and political will to seize it. At the same time, cooperation among great powers is proving unstable and unpredictable.
The shifting dynamics of the war in Ukraine and the behind-the-scenes bargaining between the US and China reveal a hard truth: Smaller nations can be easily sidelined or sacrificed in the name of strategic compromise. South Korea must not allow itself to remain a passive observer while others decide its fate.
Meanwhile, the world’s attention is increasingly focused on Asia. As the geopolitical center of gravity shifts toward the Indo-Pacific, Korea finds itself at a unique crossroads. But to wield influence, it must move beyond the role of a subordinate within a US-led axis and stand as a confident, self-defining actor. India’s example proves this is not only possible – it is necessary.
A balanced approach under Lee Jae-myung?
As South Korea heads toward another electoral shift, the political winds are changing. The opposition Democratic Party, led by Lee Jae-myung, is gaining momentum. Should Lee win the presidency, Korea may finally find the political leadership necessary to realize the true meaning of a pivotal state.
Lee’s foreign policy signals indicate a desire to rebalance Korea’s diplomacy – not by abandoning its alliance with the United States, but by supplementing it with greater strategic flexibility, economic pragmatism and a non-ideological approach to China and the Global South.
In his public speeches, Lee has emphasized cooperation over confrontation, economic sovereignty, and diplomatic pragmatism – principles that align well with the idea of a pivotal state.
Rather than choosing between Washington and Beijing, a Lee-led administration would likely pursue a “both-and” strategy. This includes maintaining the security alliance with the US while re-engaging China diplomatically and economically, expanding relations with ASEAN, Middle Eastern countries, and Eurasian nations and strengthening South Korea’s voice in multilateral forums such as the G20, APEC, BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Lee’s foreign policy is also expected to prioritize technological sovereignty, green diplomacy, and economic diversification – all key areas where Korea can assert its influence globally without taking sides. Under such a strategy, Korea could begin to function as a connector, not just a consumer, of international norms.
Learning from India
India presents a timely and practical example as South Korea seeks to redefine its role in the global order. While maintaining strong strategic ties with the United States, India has consistently upheld its strategic autonomy, refusing to be drawn into any single power bloc.
Instead, it pursues a pragmatic, issue-based diplomacy rooted in national interest and guided by values – without becoming subordinate to any major power.
South Korea can draw important lessons from India’s approach. India’s “Non-Alignment 2.0” strategy allows it to engage deeply with the US while simultaneously participating in multilateral platforms like BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the G20 alongside countries such as China and Russia.
This flexible, multi-vector diplomacy enables India to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape without being locked into rigid alliances. Korea, too, can adopt such a strategy to avoid the risks of bloc-based alignment and preserve its strategic space.
India’s growing engagement with the Global South – particularly in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia – has significantly boosted its international standing. Korea can work with India to develop closer ties with these regions, allowing it to diversify its foreign policy engagements without undermining its existing relationships with rising power blocs.
Both countries can co-invest in development projects, technology transfer, and sustainable infrastructure, thereby expanding Korea’s global footprint and building partnerships that go beyond the traditional US–China binary.
Beyond the pursuit of strategic autonomy, India’s focus on technological and trade sovereignty offers another valuable blueprint for South Korea to consider in strengthening its position as a sovereign and globally autonomous power.
In critical sectors such as semiconductors, clean energy, and digital infrastructure, India has launched initiatives aimed at reducing external dependency and building resilient domestic capabilities. South Korea, facing its own challenges due to overdependence on select global supply chains, can benefit by following a similar path – strengthening self-reliance while remaining globally competitive.
By aligning more closely with India and embracing a broader, multidimensional strategic vision, South Korea can overcome its current limitations and emerge as a more independent, respected actor in both regional and global affairs. Thus, through strategic learning and enhanced cooperation with India in both economic and geopolitical domains, South Korea can strengthen its capacity to emerge as a genuinely global pivotal state.
This growing partnership is not about choosing sides, but about standing together – confidently and collaboratively. Through deeper cooperation and shared leadership, Korea and India can shape a more inclusive, balanced, and multipolar international order, reinforcing one another’s journey toward genuine strategic autonomy.
By following India’s lead, South Korea can reclaim a more self-directed, balanced foreign policy – one that protects its national interests while contributing meaningfully to a more stable world.
The strategic identity Korea urgently needs
To become a true pivotal state and have strategic autonomy , Korea must craft a foreign policy identity grounded in self-determination rather than alignment. This doesn’t mean taking an anti-American or pro-Chinese stance – it means being unequivocally pro-Korea.
At the core of this identity lies the principle of strategic autonomy: South Korea makes decisions based on its own national interests, not according to the expectations or pressures of its allies.
Such an approach requires balanced engagement, meaning South Korea should actively pursue diplomacy with all major powers – especially those in Asia and the Global South – while also playing a constructive role in multilateral forums. At the same time, Korea’s new diplomacy must be guided by value-based pragmatism. This involves upholding principles like democracy, peace, and the rule of law, while also acknowledging the realities of a diverse international system.
Korea today stands at a historical crossroads. The failures of the Yoon administration to fulfill the promise of a global pivotal state have shown what happens when rhetoric is not matched by strategic independence. But this failure also provides a valuable lesson – that true leadership on the global stage requires courage, balance, and the will to chart one’s own path.
With Lee Jae-myung poised as a serious contender for Korea’s next presidency, the country may have its first real opportunity in decades to shift from alignment to autonomy, from reactive diplomacy to strategic leadership.
The world does not need another follower in the US-China rivalry. It needs a Korea that stands firm, speaks clearly, and acts wisely – a Korea that can finally become the true pivotal state it was always destined to be.
Korea’s moment to reclaim its strategic autonomy has finally arrived – and by looking to India as both a partner and a model, it may discover its clearest path forward and its closest ally in these challenging times.
