By Mei Mei Chu and Ella Cao
BEIJING (Reuters) -China will plant four to five times more genetically modified (GM) corn this year than last, analysts and executives say, building momentum in a rollout that has been slowed by tight state controls, public scepticism, and mixed trial outcomes.
After decades of caution, the world’s top importer of corn and soybeans has in the past two years ramped up approvals of several GM seed varieties, touting biotech cultivation, or GM technology as a way to boost food security.
China’s GM corn planting area is on track to increase to between 40 million and 50 million mu (3.3 million hectares) this year from roughly 10 million mu in 2024, according to CITICS Research and three seed industry insiders, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter in the country.
While not directly tied to the U.S.-Sino trade war, the push to grow more GM corn could reduce China’s need for imports, giving Beijing a new lever in its tariff battle with President Donald Trump. The U.S. last year supplied 15% of China’s corn imports.
Even with the increase in plantings, GM corn would still only account for 7% of China’s total corn acreage, compared with over 90% in agricultural heavyweights such as the United States or Brazil.
China could quickly reach similar levels by embracing GM technology, however Beijing has tended towards caution in the face of ingrained scepticism from consumers and farmers.
The government tightly manages seed sales and planting through controls that industry executives say make planning difficult and that have left domestic seed companies sitting on a glut of seeds.
“Market adoption hinges on two key factors: demonstrated yield and cost benefits for farmers, and Beijing’s ability to align commercial rollout with persistent public scepticism,” said Matthew Nicol, senior analyst at research group China Policy.
DISAPPOINTING TRIALS
China imports over 100 million metric tons of corn and soybeans each year, mostly GM varieties for animal feed, predominantly from Brazil and the U.S., while cultivating non-GM crops locally for food consumption.
Crops genetically modified for higher yields or resistance to drought and pests could boost yields by 6-13%, according to estimates from analysts and one seed official.
However, several recent GMO trials resulted in lower yields, disappointing some farmers already sceptical about the technology, according to the three sources familiar with the rollout, putting progress at risk.
Some regions where first-generation GM corn trials were planted during 2022-2023 saw 10-20% yield declines, the sources said.
