From a drama standpoint, the 151st Kentucky Derby has a tough act to follow after last year’s three-way photo finish. But Saturday’s edition features an intriguing handicapping puzzle, with the possibility of a wild result and a nice payday for those who can figure it out.
I’d love to be one of them, and while my track record makes me something far less than an authority on these matters, here are a few angles that I’m looking at.
The favorite
His name is Journalism and he towers above the field in at least one notable metric: speed figures. For every race that’s run across the country, each horse is assigned a Beyer speed rating, based on an algorithm designed to flatten out variances between different race lengths and track conditions. The higher the number, the better the horse.
In one of the two key Kentucky Derby prep races he won in Southern California, Journalism posted a Beyer of 108, tops of anyone in this field. Having the best Beyer doesn’t automatically translate to victory, but notably in last year’s running, the top four finishers were all horses who came in with among the five highest Beyers in the field.
The knock on Journalism? He put up those numbers against tiny fields — just four rivals in each of those races. In the Kentucky Derby he’ll be facing 19 foes and vastly more traffic than he’s ever had to contend with.
Heating up too much?
On paper, there’s tons of early speed in this year’s Kentucky Derby — horses that want (or need) to be on the lead or just off of it to run their best. The problem with lots of speed is that these horses tend to push each other to go too fast, too soon, burning them all out and opening the door for a fresh-legged rival to mow them down in the stretch.
Four of the five inside horses in this year’s race have the potential to flash early speed (Citizen Bull, Neoequos, American Promise and Admire Daytona). So do East Avenue and Owen Almighty, who will start farther out. That’s the recipe for a pace meltdown, and maybe even for someone to come from the clouds to win at a big price. Sandman and Sovereignty are the most highly touted deep closers in the field; Tiztastic, Burnham Square and Chunk of Gold will also be coming from far back and would all blow up the tote board.
Bob Baffert’s back
The best-known trainer in horse racing, 72-year-old Bob Baffert, is making his return to Churchill Downs after a three-year ban. Officially, Baffert has won the race six times (a seventh winner, Medina Spirit, was later disqualified after the discovery of a medication violation, which triggered his suspension) and has the backing of some of the sport’s most ambitious and deep-pocketed owners. He typically boasts the deepest roster of Kentucky Derby prospects, though this year’s crop has underwhelmed a bit — at least so far.
Baffert’s entry, Citizen Bull, might end up a decent price. He likes to be in front and could therefore be compromised if that hot pace develops. (Note: Baffert’s other entry, Rodriguez, was scratched late Thursday. He is also a speed horse, so his exit could boost Citizen Bull.)
Citizen Bull has the added challenge of drawing the dreaded No. 1 post, jammed inside by the rail. The last horse to win from that spot was Ferdinand back in 1986. But dismiss Baffert’s duo at your own peril. Better than anyone, he knows how to win this race, even when the pace scenario looks unfavorable — something he once did at odds of 21-1 with War Emblem back in 2002.
The also eligible
With Rodriguez scratching from the race, Baeza will now join the field from the far outside post. Don’t let his late entry fool you: This horse is a major contender.
He ran against favorite Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and put up a whale of a fight, losing by less than a length and posting an impressive 100 speed rating. Like Journalism, he figures to sit off the pace and potentially be in position to capitalize if the horses up front burn out.
The Japan factor
Japan is a relative newcomer to the international racing scene, and for a while, simply getting a horse into the Kentucky Derby field was considered a feat. But in the last few years, the Japanese program has blossomed, with Japan-based horses taking down major races in the Middle East and here in the U.S.
Last year, Forever Young came within inches of becoming the first Japanese horse to win the Kentucky Derby, losing out in a three-way photo finish for the ages. This year, there are two Japanese runners, Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe, who has bested Admire Daytona twice and seems the stronger of the two. But no one quite knows what to make of Luxor Cafe, who has done all of his racing in Japan, never facing any American horses. Video from his wins looks very impressive, but just how good were the horses he was beating? And will that form translate to the U.S.?
The best storyline
Lonnie Briley was never supposed to be here. The folksy 72-year-old Louisianan has been training horses since 1991 and has had success, but mostly with cheap horses running for small prizes in racing’s backwaters. Until now.
His horse, Coal Battle, may lack the regal breeding of his foes in this race, but that only makes what he’s achieved that much more impressive: an improbable four-race win streak over the fall and winter, from a small stakes at lowly Delta Downs to a triumph in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at venerable Oaklawn Park and a berth in the Kentucky Derby. It’s made him — by far — the most accomplished horse Briley has ever conditioned.
Almost 15% of all of the purse money Briley’s horses have ever won, in fact, is from Coal Battle over the past few months. Before this, Briley had never come remotely close to the Kentucky Derby, and just by getting here he’s defied the odds. Coal Battle’s odds are long in this race (his speed figures are on the light side), but even his rival trainers will probably be smiling if he can pull this one off.
My pick (or as I call it, my annual Kiss of Death)
I’m still torn as I type this. But I’ll be sharing it along with the rest of the NBC Sports team around 6:30 p.m. Saturday.
