Why few are holding their breath for a Putin-Zelenskyy showdown in Istanbul

Good morning. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said yesterday evening that he was ready to begin face-to-face peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, an announcement that capped a weekend of proposals, counterproposals and ultimatums over the war.

Here, I analyse what — if anything — it all means, while our tech and trade correspondents reveal eye-opening research into how China is beating Europe at defining the diplomatic narrative.

War of words

A tête-à-tête in Turkey this Thursday, a 30-day ceasefire plan backed by Ukraine, the US and Kyiv’s western allies, and an offer from Moscow to restart bilateral negotiations: headlines this weekend suggested positive progress in the push to end the more than three-year-long war. The reality is more complicated.

Context: US President Donald Trump came to office promising a swift end to the conflict. Efforts by his administration to broker a ceasefire have foundered.

The weekend began with leaders from France, Germany, Poland and the UK going to Ukraine to unite around Zelenskyy’s 30-day ceasefire pitch and warn of western sanctions against Moscow and a surge in western arms supplies to Kyiv if Putin rejected it.

In the early hours of Sunday night, Putin responded in an extraordinary press statement that rebuffed the proposal, and countered with his own offer of talks in Istanbul.

Then yesterday evening, Zelenskyy called his bluff. “I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally,” he said. “I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses.”

Yet there are two enormous obstacles to overcome: First, Zelenskyy says the fighting must stop before the talks begin; Putin says the opposite. Second, Zelenskyy wants to talk about peace; Putin wants to talk about measures to end Ukrainian sovereignty.

Alongside their full-blown war, the two presidents are fighting a battle inside Trump’s head. Both are striving to paint the other as the obstacle to peace, and to keep him sympathetic to their stance.

Zelenskyy needs Trump to remain engaged in order to maintain US supplies of weapons, money and military intelligence. Putin wants Trump’s involvement to engineer a wider US-Russia rapprochement.

“HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!,” Trump said last night, referring to Istanbul. “At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible.”

Most analysts believe that without a major breakthrough in either direction on the battlefield, a change in leadership in either country, or a dramatic shift in Trump’s stance, the conflict will continue.

“The reality is that neither Moscow nor Kyiv is ready to agree to a durable peace, as their positions are fundamentally irreconcilable”, said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a Russian political consultancy. “No agreement is realistically possible now.”

Chart du jour: Bad cop

The rush to get copper into the US ahead of possible tariffs has created shortages and price dislocations for the red metal in continental Europe.

Chinese whispers

Europe is giving China too much room to shape public narratives around diplomatic meetings and needs to step up its strategic communication, according to new research seen by Barbara Moens and Andy Bounds.

Context: China has embarked on a global charm offensive since US President Donald Trump unveiled his “liberation day” tariffs early April. Beijing has lifted sanctions on European lawmakers and is trying to revive an investment deal with the EU. European capitals are divided on how to handle Beijing, with some pushing to preserve business ties and others pushing for a more assertive stance. 

The heightened transatlantic tensions have made it easier for Beijing to project a benevolent stance towards Brussels through diplomatic messaging affecting the calculus in European capitals, according to a new paper from Berlin-based think-tank Merics.

The research suggests that between 2019 and 2024, more than 60 per cent of bilateral meetings between Chinese and European officials were only documented by public statements published by Beijing.

European readouts, when published, were often shorter and less detailed. Brussels published a statement detailing its trade commissioner’s visit to China in March three days after it finished.  

Merics warns that this “readout gap” gives Beijing more control of the narrative and the leeway to portray EU-China ties as more harmonious than they are — especially on thorny issues such as Russia’s war in Ukraine.

It also makes it harder for EU governments to build public support for tougher China policies, such as tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles or blocking certain Chinese investments in the bloc.

At a time of growing geopolitical rivalry, “Europe urgently needs to strengthen its strategic communication with and about China”, the think-tank said.

What to watch today

1. Representatives from France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Poland and the EU join a “Weimar+” meeting in London hosted by UK foreign secretary David Lammy.

2. Meeting of Eurozone finance ministers in Brussels.

3. Informal meeting of EU energy ministers in Warsaw.

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