ATLANTA — When Georgia’s governor and a lightning-rod congresswoman decided last week to not run for the U.S. Senate, it seemed like the waiting game was over among Republicans seeking to challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff.
U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter, who represents a district on the Georgia coast, had become the first major Republican candidate to declare when he announced on Thursday. Then, state Insurance Commissioner John King did the same on Monday.
“I expect a competitive primary — Senate seats don’t come along that often,” said Eric Tanenblatt, a top national GOP fundraiser and Kemp ally who has backed Trump’s rivals in presidential primaries.
But after the exits of Gov. Brian Kemp and U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, there’s a new waiting game going on. Hopefuls are looking to President Donald Trump and Kemp for support. The governor told reporters last week that he’d like to unite with Trump behind a preferred candidate, which could head off an expensive and tumultuous primary that could weaken a nominee.
“I had a good conversation with President Trump about my decision. And I’m going to continue talking to him about the races in Georgia,” Kemp said in Forsyth, Georgia. “I think if it’s possible, it would be great if we can line up on things. That’s hard to do sometimes in primaries.”
Kemp and Trump met Sunday in Washington, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported, and some possible contenders are waiting to see how things play out. Republican congressman Mike Collins said on the day that Kemp stepped aside that he wanted to hear from Trump.
“I will speak to President Trump and his team and do whatever is necessary to ensure he has another vote in the Senate for the America First agenda,” Collins said on the day Kemp stepped aside.
Five other GOP officeholders have acknowledged interest in the race, including two other Republicans in Congress, Rick Allen and Rich McCormick. Also mulling it over are Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Sen. Greg Dolezal.
Trump’s own desires could elevate others.
U.S. Rep. Brian Jack, Trump’s White House political adviser during Trump’s first term, is in his first term in Congress. Jack has vaulted onto a leadership track in the House, becoming deputy chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the GOP House campaign arm. Having also served as an aide to then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Jack was elected as the freshman representative to the House GOP Steering Committee. Jack has shown no public interest in the Senate seat but may be closer to Trump than any Georgia Republican.
Republicans have flagged Georgia and Michigan as prime opportunities for expanding their Senate majority in 2026. But in Georgia, unlike Michigan, the Democratic incumbent is seeking reelection. Ossoff is trying to show he can deliver for Georgia and work with Republicans while also offering a sharp critique of Trump.
While Georgia backed Trump in 2024, the state’s voters have sometimes supported Democrats. They chose Joe Biden in 2020. They handed Senate control to Democrats in January 2021 runoffs by electing Ossoff and Raphael Warnock after Republicans David Perdue and Loeffler lashed themselves to Trump’s false claims that his 2020 defeat was rigged. They then reelected Warnock in a runoff over Herschel Walker, the Republican nominee in 2022.
Any Republican challenger to Ossoff must win a primary that could be decided well to the right of the broader electorate.
“Republicans don’t want business as usual. They want disruption,” said Chip Lake, a GOP campaign consultant who worked for Walker in 2022.
But a primary in which every candidate tries to be the most conservative and most loyal to Trump could cause problems later.
“If we nominate someone that is just too extreme, I don’t think it’s going to go well for us in a general election,” Tanenblatt said.
Rallying around a single candidate might reduce that risk. That’s where Trump and Kemp, who has his own fraught history with the president, could play key roles.
Kemp pledged that his political organization, considered the most effective in Georgia, will work for a Republican Senate win in 2026. Victory could burnish Kemp’s reputation.
“Just because my name’s not on the ballot, that doesn’t mean that I won’t be on the political playing field,” Kemp said.
But some time to campaign without a Trump endorsement would give candidates time to prove themselves, said Brian Robinson, a Republican political consultant.
“We’ll see how hard they’re working. We’ll see how much money they’re raising and we’ll see what machinations go on in the third-party groups out of D.C.,” Robinson said, alluding to politically active conservative groups such as Club for Growth.
Carter, a pharmacist, mayor and state lawmaker before he went to Congress, is trying to get a jump on that process. Tanenblatt said Carter is the kind of Republican who can appeal to the Trump base and the party’s more traditional wing. His challenge, Tanenblatt said, is that he’s largely unknown in metro Atlanta, home to most Georgia voters.
Collins, a second-term congressman, might benefit from representing a northeast Georgia district that includes some of Atlanta’s suburbs. Besides Greene, he’s maybe the most like Trump stylistically, with a string of inflammatory social media posts and a big, booming personality. It’s not an act, said Jay Morgan, a longtime Republican strategist.
“This is not something he made up,” Morgan said. “He’s gotten a little better at it, he’s gotten a little more polished and he is a hard worker. Nobody will work harder than Mike Collins.”
Maybe the best-known Republican prospect is Raffensperger, but his notoriety could cut both ways. Raffensperger is best known for clashing with Trump when Trump asked him to overturn Biden’s 2020 win in Georgia.
“The best argument Brad Raffensperger can make is he can win,” Morgan said.
Raffensperger appealed to moderates and even Democrats in his 2022 reelection bid, but he is despised by many Republican activists.
“Donald Trump is the leader of this party, and you’re not going to have success at all in a primary as a candidate running for any office in Georgia if you don’t acknowledge that and be supportive of that,” Lake said,
The right nominee will tap into GOP hunger to win back one of Georgia’s Senate seats after three consecutive losses.
“They are tired of losing,” Morgan said. “And this could be a critical, critical race. Depending on what happens in the country and the mood of the country, this is a race Republicans can win again.”
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