Ukraine’s supporters in Europe and Washington expect a summit in Turkey on Thursday, proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, to fall apart and convince President Trump that Moscow is an untrustworthy partner.
Putin on Sunday proposed direct negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul, but as of Wednesday his government has not said who would be attending from its side.
Trump earlier this week pressed Ukraine to attend the talks, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he would do only if Putin was “not afraid” and showed up, setting up a potential diplomatic standoff.
While Trump wants the two sides to sign up to an immediate 30-day ceasefire, a proposal Zelensky backs, Putin said he wants talks to start first before any details of a ceasefire are discussed.
On Wednesday, Trump, who is visiting the Middle East this week, said he didn’t yet know if Putin would attend the talks, but floated traveling there himself.
“[Putin would] like me to be there, and that’s a possibility. . . . I don’t know that he would be there if I’m not there. We’re going to find out,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One while flying to Qatar.
The president had earlier said that he could visit Istanbul for the talks as part of his trip to the Middle East this week. On Wednesday he again floated the possibility, while noting that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be at Thursday’s gathering.
Many are skeptical that Putin will follow through.
The European Union is readying a sanctions package – it’s 17th – that is expected to be imposed if the Kremlin fails to impose a ceasefire or engage in talks.
“European allies of the United States are uniformly very skeptical that Putin is at all interested in the ceasefire,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), adding that he himself does not know if the talks will happen.
The Europeans “do want to be included in any deal if they’re going to be expected to provide security in a post-ceasefire moment. That’s a fair expectation. But the people who are closest to the situation on the ground – and I visited Finland, Germany, Poland, Ukraine in the last two months – are highly skeptical about any progress.”
Trump, who has grown increasingly frustrated with both Kyiv and Moscow as he seeks to broker a peace deal, has suggested the U.S. could impose sanctions on Russia but has not indicated on which sectors.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), has teamed up with Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), on sanctions legislation that has 70 co-sponsors, ensuring it could override a filibuster and also override a potential presidential veto.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said it is her understanding that officials in the White House want to see the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions bill go to a vote.
A spokesperson for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-N.D.) said the office did not have any scheduling announcements, when asked about the status of the legislation.
“There is some tacit support for it, and that it would be very helpful in changing the dynamic. So it’s not clear to me why there is so much foot dragging on the part of the majority,” Shaheen said, adding criticism over Trump’s handling of negotiations so far.
“I continue to be concerned about negotiations around the war in Ukraine, and what I think has been the ability of Vladimir Putin to play the president’s offer time and the president’s willingness to give away our leverage in supporting the Ukrainians,” she told reporters on Tuesday.
“He does seem to be more concerned at this point about what Putin is doing. I hope that that’s the case and that he’s waking up to what we need to do there to continue to support Ukraine.”
Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), said he thinks Trump is “awake” and aware of the threat Putin poses.
“I think he is, and I think even though he just wants to see the end of the war, I think he is recognizing that in order to have peace, you’ve got to have willing participants. Mr. Putin is not a willing participant,” Rounds told The Hill.
“You’ll have to drag him into this, and that means the threat to his existential existence.”
But absent pressure from the U.S., Zelensky is relying on the so-called coalition of the willing, European partners who have stepped up political support in the face of Trump apparently backing away from support for Kyiv.
Leaders of France, Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom were in Kyiv on Saturday, putting support behind the proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire and offering to place European soldiers inside Ukraine as a security guarantee.
“They agreed that if Russia refuses a full and unconditional ceasefire, stronger sanctions should be applied to its banking and energy sectors, targeting fossil fuels, oil and the shadow fleet,” Zelensky said in a statement at the time.
Should both Putin and Zelensky make it to the negotiating table in Turkey, it would mark the first meeting between the leaders since December 2019.
Negotiators from the two warring countries last held direct talks in Istanbul in March 2022, only a month after Putin ordered tens of thousands of Russian troops into Ukraine after amassing them along the border.
A similar dynamic may be playing out now.
Can Kasapoğlu, a nonresident senior fellow with the Hudson Institute, a think-tank based in Washington D.C., said Russia’s military is gearing up for a large-scale summer offensive.
“Russia is likely to target Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia in its push. With ceasefire talks upcoming, the Kremlin may feel increased pressure to make battlefield gains,” he wrote in an analysis published Wednesday.
While he pointed out that declassified intelligence from the United Kingdom shows Russia only seized about 80 square miles of Ukrainian territory over the past month, he also warned Putin could regroup.
“Ukraine’s defenses near the crucial logistics hub of Pokrovsk have proven resilient. Despite a heavy Russian offensive push, Kyiv’s forces have kept the city from falling into enemy hands. Nonetheless, Russia has secured tactical gains in nearby areas, enveloping many of Ukraine’s defensive formations,” he wrote.
“With the Russian military generating an estimated 30,000 new troops per month—more than the standing armies of several North Atlantic Treaty Organization nations—Moscow can rotate its combat units while maintaining its current personnel levels in Ukraine.”
