What Putin’s Turkey no-show could mean for Ukraine’s peace deal

Good morning. Vladimir Putin has finally declared that he will not meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy for bilateral peace talks that he himself proposed. Our Moscow and Kyiv correspondents explain the potential fallout. And my Brussels colleague reports that EU car safety standards will not be sacrificed on the altar of a US trade deal.

No-show

It was Russian President Vladimir Putin who suggested bilateral peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul. Last night he ended days of uncertainty by making clear he wasn’t prepared to actually take part, write Polina Ivanova and Christopher Miller.

Context: Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has raged since February 2022. US President Donald Trump has demanded an end to the conflict, pressuring both sides to agree on a ceasefire. Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have not met since 2019.

Yesterday evening, Putin published his teamsheet for the Turkey talks, without his name on it. That ended days of Kremlin prevarication on his attendance since he proposed the meeting on Saturday night.

The no-show marks a crunch moment in the high-stakes lobbying campaign being conducted by both Putin and Zelenskyy to convince US President Donald Trump that the other is the impediment to peace.

Zelenskyy, who will be in Ankara today meeting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, had said he’d join the talks if Putin turned up. Trump, too, had suggested he was also prepared to join, if Putin were willing.

There is much hanging on how Putin’s decision not to participate is interpreted. Ukraine’s European allies have for months sought to convince Trump and his entourage that Putin was not to be trusted, and had no intention of stopping the war. Trump has hinted in recent weeks his patience with the Russian leader was ebbing. Western officials hope a no-show would tip him over the edge.

Zelenskyy said earlier this week “If Putin does not arrive and plays games, it is the final point that he does not want to end the war.”

EU capitals have vowed to impose new, powerful sanctions on Moscow if Putin ignores the peace talks, and have said the European Commission is already working on a new package of measures targeting Russia’s financial and energy sectors.

The fresh restrictions, which are being co-ordinated with US Senator Lindsey Graham, would come after the EU agreed its 17th sanctions package yesterday, which will come into force next week.

It’s unclear how the talks will unfold, with Russia’s delegation headed by Kremlin adviser Vladimir Medinsky. Moscow has said it only wants to discuss what Putin calls “the root causes” of the conflict, and demands that would severely damage Kyiv’s sovereignty.

Russian officials have suggested any negotiations should pick up from where they left off in Istanbul in the spring of 2022, when the two sides’ negotiating teams last attempted to hash out a settlement. 

“There were never any negotiations,” Zelenskyy said of those talks. “It was an ultimatum from a murderer.”

Chart du jour: Deep blue

Undersea mining has largely been science fiction. But as competition for critical minerals grows fiercer, the issue dubbed the “new gold rush” by Donald Trump has been thrust into the spotlight.

Crash test

Pedestrians across the EU can breathe a sigh of relief. Brussels has said it will hold firm on vehicle standards despite pressure from the US as it tries to cut a trade deal on cars, writes Alice Hancock.

Context: Autos are among the priority sectors to be addressed in transatlantic trade negotiations. US President Donald Trump has imposed an additional 25 per cent tariff on EU car imports. The EU has an existing 10 per cent tariff on vehicles going the other way.

Numbers are not the only concern of the US administration, which had demanded the EU align its vehicle standards with its lower ones in order to ease trade flows.

That idea did not bode well for the safety of European roads.

According to a letter sent to the European Commission by several transport groups, road deaths in the EU have decreased by 16 per cent since 2013, but have increased by 25 per cent in the US over the same period. Unlike the EU and the UK, the US has no vehicle safety standards for pedestrian protection, which through design features help minimise injuries.

The commission considered lowering standards, but finally decided not to do so. In an email to the European Transport Safety Council seen by the FT, Leopoldo Rubinacci, its deputy director-general for trade, assured the group that “neither EU safety and environmental performance standards, nor citizens’ EU Treaty guaranteed rights and values are up for negotiation”.

What could be on the table is the recognition of certain safety test results in areas with similar requirements.

What to watch today

1. EU trade ministers meet.

2. EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas meets Greenland’s foreign minister Vivian Motzfeldt.

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