Investors have a problem to work through: How to decide how and when to invest or sell — and what all that entails.
Stocks had a good week, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rising 1.5% and closing above 6,000 for the first time since Feb. 21. Friday’s big rally had some market watchers declare 6,500 on the index a real possibility.
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The other big averages rose at least 1.2% on the week. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index jumped 2.9%.
There were lots of winners like:
- On Semiconductor (ON) , up 19.4%.
- Quantum Computing (QUBT) , up 21%.
- Robinhood Markets (HOOD) , up 13.2%.
- Appliance/electronics retailer Best Buy (BBY) , up 10.2%.
And one clear non-winner: Tesla (TSLA) , down more than 14.8% in the wake of CEO Elon Musk’s flame-throwing departure from the White House.
An important downside: Bond yields moved up. The 10-year Treasury finished Frida with a 4.512% yield. Mortgage rates adjusted nearly to 7%.
“I truly find it remarkable that interest rates (the foundation of all discounted dividend/cash flow models) are climbing so rapidly, yet equities are unconcerned,” Doug Kass wrote in his Daily Diary on the Street Pro.
Related: Scott Galloway sends blunt message to Elon Musk
Global forces will weigh on stocks
The week ahead offers some important earnings reports, but if you you’re thinking of putting money to work, take a breath. This may also be a week in which what happens outside the stock and bond markets may prove more important that what happens.
The events start with the meeting scheduled Monday in London between trade representatives from the United States and China to get the tariff negotiations moving.
There is an August deadline get to a deal done, and President Donald Trump, not known for patience, may begin to get antsy.
Related: Berkshire Hathaway shares sag since Buffett say he’s retiring
There is a closer deadline: July 9 for all the other trade deals to get done, and one isn’t hearing much on that front, either.
Markets will start getting nervous over these problems, and it will be tricky then because second-quarter earnings reports will start to come out.
In addition, Apple (AAPL) is holding its World Wide Developer Conference this week. News may be committed at the event.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) and PepsiCo (PEP) are expected to report the week of July 7. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) says it will report on July 15.
Another factor to consider: an expected drop off in foreign travel to the United States.
A December estimate for an 8.7% increase in foreign visitors to the U.S. in 2025 has been revised to an 8,7% decline, Bloomberg News reported. Marriott (MAR) has already trimmed its guidance for 2025 because of expected softness in U.S. and Canadian business.
A dramatic, maybe stomach churning year so far
So far, 2025 has been a dramatic, nay wild, year for stocks.
But a bad year? Not really or yet. The S&P 500 is up 2% on the year, with eight of 11 sectors showing gains.
The Nasdaq is up 1.1%. The Nasdaq-100 Index, dominated by big tech stocks, is up 3.6%.
Most of the gains have come since the market bottom in April.
Industrials are leading the S&P 500 with a 9.7% gain this year, led by Howmet Aerospace (HWM) , which makes components for jet engines, GE Aerospace (GE) , which makes aircraft engines, and GE Vernova (GEV) , which concentrates on power equipment.
The weakest sector is Consumer Discretionary, down 6.8%. The group includes Tesla, Caesar Entertainment (CZR) and homebuilders Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) .
Information technology, including Microsoft (MSFT) , Apple, Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) , is up 1.1%.
More Retail Stocks:
- Halloween retailer sounds warning consumers need to hear
- Target expands same-day delivery to 100s of retailers
- Walmart makes surprise cuts as it looks at tariff price hikes
The important reports to watch this week
Database giant Oracle, after Wednesday’s close
Oracle (ORCL) has a market capitalization of nearly $500 billion. The shares are up 7.3% this year but up 42% from the April post-tariff announcement low.
The earnings estimate is $1.64 a share, up slightly from a year ago’s $1.63. The revenue estimate is $15.6 billion, up 9% from a year ago.
Adobe Systems, after Thursday’s close.
Adobe (ADBE) is best known for tools to design and produce content. Anyone who has sent a .pdf file to any where has probably used Adobe software.
The earnings estimate is $4.97 a share, up 11% from a year. Revenue is estimated at $5.8 billion, up 9.3%. Adobe shares are down 6.2% this year. Mostly that is because valuation is more appropriate. The shares had been at 30 times earnings. That’s down to 20.
Food company J.M. Smucker, before Tuesday’s open.
Smucker (SJM) , the Ohio maker of jams, peanut butter (Adams) bought Hostess Brands, makers of no less than Hostess Twinkies, for $4.6 billion.
Digesting the acquisition has been hard. The sweet snacks business faces huge headwinds in the demand for healthier snacks. (Can you say Wegovy and Mounjaro?) Smucker shares are up just 0.7% this year. The company took a big write-down in the first quarter.
This quarter’s report is all about showing progress on the problem. The earnings estimate is $2.25 a share, down from $2.66 a year ago. The revenue forecast is $2.19 billion, down slightly from last year’s $2.21 billion.
Video game retailer Gamestop, before Friday’s open
Gamestop (GME) is the world’s largest video game, consumer electronics, and gaming merchandise retailer.
The revenue estimate is $796.8 million, down 9.6% from a year ago. Earnings may come in a 4 cents a share.
Also reporting this week
Casey’s General Stores, (CASY) , Iowa-based operator of convenience stores in the Midwest and South. After Monday’s close.
Core & Main (CNM) , distributor of water, sewer and fire-protection products. Before Tuesday’s open.
Online pet-supply retailer Chewy (CHWY) . Before Wednesday’s open.
Related: Veteran fund manager who predicted April rally updates S&P 500 forecast
