The Thunder will have their first chance to win an NBA championship since they moved to Oklahoma City on Thursday night as they take a 3-2 lead into Game 6 of the NBA Finals against the Indiana Pacers.
After the Pacers took a shocking 2-1 lead, the Thunder have rallied back to win the last two games in the series. Oklahoma City forward Jalen Williams was the star in Game 5, scoring 40 points in a win.
Meanwhile, Indiana not only faces elimination Thursday, but it will also have to save it season with a limited version of guard Tyrese Haliburton, who is dealing with a right calf injury.
What can you expect in Game 6? NBC News is here to break down the action.
Why the Thunder have won the last two games
Andrew Greif: Oklahoma City has found a way to take a proverbial punch and remain standing, while Indiana has stunningly, and suddenly, no longer been able to close out games late.
Just when the series appeared to begin tilting toward Indiana deep into Game 4, with a 3-1 Pacers lead a real possibility, Lu Dort’s hellacious defense helped force Indiana into tough shots and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring rescued Oklahoma City. And in Game 5, just as Indiana appeared to be wearing down the Thunder by trimming an 18-point lead to two, Oklahoma City responded by coercing the Pacers into a three-minute sequence featuring four brutal turnovers that doomed their ‘ comeback chance.
Oklahoma City this season won games by historic scoring margins, which meant it had relatively little “clutch” experience, especially compared with Indiana. Yet in the last two games, the Thunder have looked more comfortable late in close games.
Rohan Nadkarni: Defense. The Thunder had the NBA’s best defense during the regular season, and in the most important moments of this series, OKC’s ability to slow down the Pacers has made the biggest difference.
In Game 4, after Indiana scored 20 points in the first five minutes, it scored only seven points in the final five minutes of a 17-point fourth quarter, allowing the Thunder to overcome a seven-point deficit.
In Game 5, Oklahoma City forced Indiana into 23 turnovers, adding 12 blocks for good measure.
Indiana is a fast-paced team that thrives in chaos. At the same time, the Pacers need to play with hyper-attention to detail for 48 minutes against a Thunder team that will relentlessly pounce on any hint of laziness.
What adjustments do the Pacers need to make in Game 6?
Greif: This deep into any series, let alone four rounds into the postseason, there is no magic adjustment that an opponent like Oklahoma City hasn’t gamed out, scouted or prepared for. The adjustment is for Indiana to play a more focused game Thursday, one in which it doesn’t turn the ball over 23 times and miss multiple layup opportunities. Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said it best when he pointed out his team’s 23 turnovers became 32 points for Oklahoma City. Indiana is 12-13 this season when it has more turnovers than its opponent.
“That’s the game,” Carlisle said.
Nadkarni: There’s nothing I can say here that Carlisle hasn’t thought about extensively. If there’s an adjustment that hasn’t been made, it’s because Carlisle has thoroughly weighed the pros and cons and likely made the right decision.
And yet … I wonder if Indiana tries to tighten its rotation a bit. Pascal Siakam, for example, is averaging only 33 minutes per game. Can he play closer to 40? The lineup with Obi Toppin at center with the rest of the starters (in place of Myles Turner) has played only 16 minutes per game together despite being a plus-5 in that time. Does Carlisle lean on that group more with Turner struggling? Game 6 isn’t the time to get cute; it’s the time to get your best players on the floor together for as long as possible.
If Haliburton is limited, how do the Pacers compensate?
Greif: Given Haliburton’s responsibilities and the way Indiana plays on both sides of the ball, if Haliburton is limited or can’t play because of his calf injury, it puts more of a burden on Indiana’s offense than its defense. It’ll need more from its role players, of course, and the good news for Indiana is that they played well in Game 5 and should play even better at home in Game 6. On Monday, Indiana’s bench outscored Oklahoma City’s by 16 points — even with Bennedict Mathurin making just two of his 11 shots — center Myles Turner began to make shots, and Aaron Nesmith made four of his five 3-pointers. Considering how much energy guard Andrew Nembhard expends guarding Oklahoma City’s best offensive players, it’s probably too much to ask him for a 20-point game, something he’s done only twice this postseason. But Indiana must get him to hold on to the ball — his four turnovers were critical in the Game 5 loss — and for Siakam to look like the co-star who could take over a game while scoring 30 or more points three times in the Eastern Conference finals against New York.
Nadkarni: You can’t really compensate for the loss of a player like Haliburton, but the two guys who need to hunt their shots more often in Game 6 are Siakam and Mathurin. Both have the ability to do something even Haliburton has struggled with against the Thunder: play one-on-one and create their own shots. It will be a team effort to make up for Haliburton’s limitations. That means taking (and hopefully making) more 3s. Locking in defensively. At some point, though, Indiana will need someone to make a tough bucket against a stingy defense. And Siakam and Mathurin will be the Pacers’ two most talented scorers in those situations.
Prediction for Game 6?
Greif: I started this series picking Oklahoma City to win in six games, and I’m sticking with it. The Thunder will beat Indiana, 120-115, to claim their first championship since they relocated to Oklahoma City.
Nadkarni: I picked the Thunder in five, so this is wishful thinking, but I think the Pacers will send this to a Game 7. Indiana hasn’t looked overmatched in this series. Even Game 5 was a two-point game in the fourth quarter at one point. I think the Pacers hold home court in a thriller, 112–108.
