From the perspective of European NATO allies, it all went to plan: A short, one-page and five-point declaration, a nice group photo and even dinner with the Dutch king and queen. At the NATO summit at The Hague, US President Donald Trump was also in good spirits.
When he addressed the press, Trump claimed credit for ending the war in Iran and for getting NATO allies to increase their defense spending to 5% of their national GDPs by 2035.
He praised European members of the alliance for “the love and passion they showed for their countries,” but also said they needed the US. He hailed the new pledge as a “big win for Europe and for western civilization.”
What’s in the declaration?
The declaration says the allies will spend 5% on defense, split into two parts.
At least 3.5% of GDP will be spent on hard defense – that includes purchase of weapons – and up to 1.5% will go towards other defense-related investments that enhance military mobility and protect against cyber attacks. The trajectory and balance of spending will be reviewed in the next four years.
Yet not all NATO members are fully on board. President Trump called out Spain for refusing to increase spending and warned he would make the country pay more through trade.
Spain, Slovakia and Belgium seeking to opt out
Spain is the lowest NATO spender at less than 1.3% and has only recently agreed to meet the 2% target that was made a decade ago.
Observers said that political turmoil at home made it nearly impossible for Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to agree to the 5% goal. Tens of thousands protested in Madrid last week after a senior leader of Sanchez’ socialist party was accused of corruption and the opposition called for the prime minister to resign.
Sanchez asked NATO for an exemption and said Spain would achieve the military capabilities that NATO had asked for but that 2% of GDP would be enough for that.
Poland, which is leading in defense spending and already this year announced plans to increase it to 4.7% of its GDP, was not happy.
“We believe that any deviation from this principle by any member country is a bad example,” Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said.
He may have had a point. Slovakia soon piggybacked on Spain and also refused to meet the target.
“The Slovak Republic has other priorities in the coming years than armament,” Prime Minister Robert Fico posted on X. “The Slovak Republic must, similarly to Spain, reserve the sovereign right to decide at what pace and in what structure it is prepared to increase the budget.”
Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prevot told the local press his country “may not have done so by making a noisy statement like Spain, but I can assure you that for weeks our diplomats have been working hard to obtain the flexibility mechanisms that could help to lighten the burden of the Belgian effort.”
Is Washington committed to Article 5?
But even if most allies do reach the 5% target, there is lingering uncertainty over the US’ commitment to the alliance.
On his way to the summit, President Trump said there were “numerous definitions” of Article 5 – NATO’s mutual defense clause. After his arrival, however, he reassured NATO allies that the US was with them “all the way.”
Still, some damage control was required. “Stop worrying,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said at the press conference. “The United States is totally committed to NATO.”
In the summit declaration the allies then reaffirmed an “ironclad commitment” to collective defense as enshrined in Article 5, “an attack on one is an attack on all.”
Kristine Berzina, Washington DC-based managing director of the German Marshall Fund (GMF) Geostrategy North, who is currently at The Hague to attend the summit, told DW that in a way, President Trump was right. But that this was hardly the perfect time to deliberate on the nuances of the clause.
She said while it was left on individual members to choose the extent of their support to an ally under attack, the only time Article 5 has been invoked was following the 9/11 attacks on the United States. “The US has been the beneficiary of Article 5 and that’s the part that President Trump should remember,” she said.
There are also concerns that over time, the US may dial down its support to NATO.
“Later this year we can expect the US to consult allies on its global force posture – that will likely be reduced military presence in Europe and then focus on how the Europeans can fill those gaps,” Rafael Loss, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW. But he added that the good news was that the US wasn’t “dumping everything on the Europeans suddenly.”
Berzina of the GMF said there was already a conversation about how to compensate Europe for a reduction in troops and assets. “It’s possible the US might deploy more nukes in allied countries as a deterrent against adversaries.”
Edited by: Andreas Illmer
