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The UK government faces a crunch vote on its controversial welfare reforms, with ministers refusing to say if concessions by them will be enough to stave off a rebellion by Labour MPs.
Health secretary Wes Streeting said on Sunday the government was “in a better position” after watering down its disability benefit reforms, but stopped short of saying it was confident it had the numbers after more than 120 Labour MPs threatened to rebel.
The government has a working House of Commons majority of 165, meaning about 80 Labour MPs would probably need to vote against its welfare bill to defeat it, depending on abstentions and assuming other parties oppose it.
“We’re in a much better position than we were last week,” Streeting told the BBC, but he conceded there was still “a lot of trust that needs to be rebuilt”.
The Commons vote on the welfare bill on Tuesday has become a key test for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer as he approaches the first anniversary of his time in office.
Starmer moved to soften the welfare reforms last week after the government looked set to lose the vote despite its big majority.
The government’s changes to the bill — including promising not to take disability benefits called personal independence payments away from people already receiving them — were seen as a significant U-turn by the prime minister.
Critics have said the concessions risk creating a “two-tier” welfare system where people who become disabled after the reforms take effect could lose out.
Starmer has argued the reforms are essential to stop the welfare budget spiralling ever higher, but the changes will reduce the savings for the government from almost £5bn to about £2bn.
Combined with a previous U-turn on winter fuel payments for pensioners, chancellor Rachel Reeves has been left with a £4.25bn hole in her budget.
The Treasury has said the hole will not be filled by “permanent” borrowing and will set out how it will be funded in the autumn Budget, prompting critics to warn Reeves will need to increase taxes.
A number of Labour rebels said they were now prepared to back the welfare bill but dozens are understood to be holding out, with many taking the weekend to think about their options.
A Downing Street spokesperson declined to say if the government was “quietly confident” about winning the vote when asked, but highlighted how a number of leading rebels had agreed to support the government after the concessions.
They said the picture would become clearer on Monday after ministers set out the terms of reference of a review of personal independence payments by Sir Stephen Timms, the minister for social security and disability.
But to be so close to a key government vote without a clearer picture of the outcome is unusual, and highlights the tensions and bad blood within Labour.
A government official said they were having “good conversations” with MPs about the changes to the bill.
“The Timms review will ensure we protect the most vulnerable, get those that want to work back into work and maintain a sustainable welfare system for the future,” they added. “This is important to all Labour MPs.”
On Monday, work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall is due to make a Commons statement outlining the government’s planned changes to the welfare reforms.
Changing the actual text of the welfare bill at this stage is not possible, so MPs are being asked to take the ministerial statement as a promise that changes will be enacted later.
Paula Barker, the Labour MP for Liverpool Wavertree who helped organise the rebellion against the bill, said that while it was “unquestionable” a number of opponents had been won over by the government “there are still many who will still vote against”.
“Some colleagues are waiting to hear what the minister says tomorrow,” Barker added. “The key issue is whatever written ministerial statement is tabled it won’t be on the face of the bill and trust is at an all-time low.”
Vicky Foxcroft, the Labour MP who quit her position as a government whip over the welfare bill earlier this month, told the Guardian that Starmer’s concessions did not go far enough.
She said she had not decided how she would vote on Tuesday, but wanted to see further improvements to the government’s plans, adding: “I would hope that actually we start to listen to disabled people and their organisations right across government.”
Louise Haigh, one of the leading Labour rebels, said she would now vote for the bill, adding that a “significant number of concessions” had been made, but she insisted the government had to learn from the crisis.
“I think this week’s crisis has been precipitated by a sense we weren’t being listened to . . . but the PM has accepted that a different approach needs to be taken and this is an opportunity to learn serious lessons,” Haigh told the BBC.
Starmer conceded to The Sunday Times he had not got everything right and admitted his recent focus until the middle of last week had been on the Iran crisis, and the G7 and Nato summits.
He dismissed as “bollocks” claims his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney — a particular focus for the rebels’ ire for his handling of the welfare reforms — was the real driving force behind the government’s decision making.
“All these decisions are my decisions and I take ownership of them,” Starmer said.
