It’s doesn’t happen all that often, but July 4 falls on Friday. Since it is a national holiday, most Americans will have the day off.
The last time July 4 fell on a Friday was in 2014. The next time, it falls on a Friday is 2031.
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But July 4 landing on a Friday also means the most important economic report of the month — the monthly jobs report — comes on Thursday. And that means a very full day of economic reports demanding attention.
The reports may offer a snapshot of an economy that’s losing a little gas.
So, be happy if you get a three-day weekend. And enjoy watching the U.S. stock market continue to melt up in a broadening rally.
Futures trading late Sunday indicated a strong open for stocks. Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq-100 indexes all hit record highs.
The S&P 500 ended the week up 27.7% from its April lows. Not to be outdone, the Nasdaq bounced 37% from its lows, and the Nasdaq-100 was up 36%.
Stocks plunged the days after President Trump unveiled his tariff proposal on April 2.
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More pressure on the Fed
Economic softness might increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
There is speculation the Fed may cut its federal funds rate from 4.25%-to-4.5% to 4%-to-4.25% at its July 29-30 meeting.
Chairman Jerome Powell has resisted near-constant demands from President Trump for a big pre-emptive rate cut. Powell is worried tariffs will push domestic inflation higher.
A consensus is starting to emerge for the Fed to cut that rate at its Sept. 16-17 meeting.
That may not produce lower mortgage rates; the rate on a 30-year mortgage is running between 6.7% and 6.9%.
Mortgage rates are largely determined by the bond market.
Right now, bond investors want more on long-term U.S. debt. The yield on a 30-year bond has risen nearly to 5% this year while the 5-year yield has dropped to 3.84% from 4.4% at the end of 2024, according to Mortgage News Daily.
Jobs dominates Thursday reports
The jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m. The report is expected to show the unemployment rate at 4.2% and payroll employment expanding by 115,000, down from last month’s reading of 129,000 jobs gained. (Estimates on Wall Street range from 110,000 to 170,000.) The consensus estimate is wages will be up 0.3% for the month, down from 0.4% in May. The year-over-year change should be 3.8%, down down slightly from May’s 3.9%.
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Jobless claims, due at 8:30 a.m. The report for the week ended June 28 sees initial claims for the week coming in at about 240,000 up from 236,000 the week before.
Factory orders due at 10 a.m. The May report showed a 3.7% decline in new orders. The June report may show a 3.1% decline.
ISM and S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Indexes, due at 10 a.m. and 9:45 a.m. ET, respectively. Both should show small gains and will suggest the sector is still expanding.
U.S. trade deficit for May, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Expect a big number. April’s deficit estimate was $61 billion.
Other reports this week
Monday
Chicago Business Report for June, due at 9:45 a.m. ET Expected to be under 50 again. The May report put the index at 40.7, where above 50 means expansion. The index has been under 50 for 18 months.
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Tuesday
ISM Manufacturing and S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes, due at 10 a.m. and 9:45 a.m. ET, respectively The ISM number for June is expected to be 48.8, same as May. Under 50 means economic contraction.
Wednesday
ADP employment report, due at 8:16 a.m. ET. This is a measure of private-sector employment trends. In May, the report showed 37,000 private-sector job gains.
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Not on the list
The Challenger, Gray Gray & Christmas report on layoffs. This normally comes out in the first week of the month but is expected at the end of the week.
The May report listed a 47% increase in layoffs announced. The total was 93,816 cuts. The report is more a suggestive look at the jobs market that formal report like the jobs report.
Sectors hardest hit of late: Government (especially around Washington D.C.), non-profits and technology.
Tech companies, including Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon.com (AMZN) , have warned artificial intelligence will take over many jobs done by humans. Even the Walt Disney Co. (DIS) will be laying tech staff.
Microsoft announced in June it will lay off 6,000 workers and has announced a new round.
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