The Turkish public has recently become familiar with a legal term that could seal the fate of the largest opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, or CHP. “Mutlak butlan” means absolute nullity, referring to a situation where something is considered completely void or invalid from the beginning.
This is exactly what could happen on June 30, when the trial against the CHP comes to an end.
If judges in the capital, Ankara, decide to declare the 38th party congress of the CHP null and void, the party’s entire reform-minded leadership would lose its legitimacy. Turkey’s oldest party, which has mobilized millions of people to protest since the imprisonment of its presidential candidate, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, in March, would be plunged into total chaos.
What is the trial about?
Following the CHP’s landslide defeat in Turkey’s presidential election in May 2023, there were calls for a change of leadership within the party. In particular, the self-confident Imamoglu, who defeated Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s candidate three times in Istanbul, urged his party to reform.
At the party congress the following November, Imamoglu supported the current party chairman Ozgur Ozel, who prevailed against long-time chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a vote that saw all party leaders replaced.
The 76-year-old Kilicdaroglu — whom observers said had little charisma — had led the CHP for almost 14 years, losing every election against the ruling AKP party and President Erdogan.
However, Kilicdaroglu’s traditional nationalist wing did not accept the defeat. As a result, they filed criminal charges and claimed that the election process at the party congress in question had been conducted illegally. They also accused the reformist wing under Ozel and Imamoglu of having only won the victory by buying delegates’ votes. In turn, the public prosecutor’s office launched an investigation.
To avert a negative verdict, the CHP held an unscheduled party conference this past April, during which a large majority reelected the new leadership. However, the old wing again filed criminal charges against the result.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s pro-government media has been trying to set the two sides against each other, claiming that the old chairman and his supporters were victims of internal party conflict.
The result is a fierce dispute that has divided the party into two camps, with both sides hurling serious accusations and insults at each other.
Is Erdogan making a strategic maneuver against the opposition?
Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabanci University in Istanbul, said Erdogan is trying to weaken and divide the CHP because of its popularity and efforts to resist the increasing repression.
He told DW that the Turkish president had already used this method against three opposition parties, with success each time.
Esen said Erdogan is once again stepping in the way of reform and rejuvenation in order to counteract the development of new groups of opposition voters, preferring the old, entrenched and unsuccessful opposition leaders as rivals. If the court rules against the young CHP leadership on Monday, Erdogan will be able to add another victory to his tally, he added.
What are the possible outcomes?
Legal experts don’t consider the Turkish judiciary to be independent, and there has been speculation about the trail’s outcome for several days.
If the verdict is in favor of the current leadership, which is rather unlikely, the CHP under Ozgur Ozel can continue its course.
If the judges rule against the current leadership, the party leaders and structure would lose their legitimacy. In this case, Kilicdaroglu, the former leader, could take over the party and shape the CHP according to his will.
Kilicdaroglu has already said he would like to return to the party in order to prevent the appointment of a temporary administrator. Should that come to pass, said political scientist Esen, it would mean even more chaos because Kilicdaroglu would not have the support of the base.
Should a temporary administrator end up assuming control of the party, Esen is convinced he would have no chance. The resistance within the party would be too great for him to be able to hold a party conference after around six weeks, as the current legal situation requires, and the current chairman Ozel and his faction would certainly emerge victorious once again.
In a fourth scenario, the reformers would end up leaving the CHP and launching a new political party. However, observers have pointed out that such parties have never reached the strength of the parent party in the country’s recent history, and the original parties end up weakened and ineffective.
A final outcome could see the verdict postponed — a move that would further split the CHP and portray the party as an incompetent alternative that would be unable to govern a country.
The future of Turkey’s largest opposition party is at stake. Since the arrest of its presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu, it has been organizing large rallies twice a week. They have mobilized millions of people, even in the strongholds of the ruling AKP party. A ruling that considers the current CHP party leadership unlawful risks diverting that spotlight, with the party preoccupied with itself and its own chaos for a long time.
As a result, the popular Imamoglu — Erdogan’s main challenger — could be banished to political insignificance in prison, without the support of a strong opposition party.
This article was originally written in German.
