Scientists have been scrambling to make sense of a recent acceleration in warming, which may be attributable, they say, to changes in solar output or to shifts in cloud cover. A new study finds the biggest driver may be a drop in air pollution in East Asia, primarily in China.
Over the last 15 years, Chinese officials have cracked down on sulfur dioxide seeping from power plants and factories. The pollutant, which can cause wheezing, coughing, and shortness of breath, reacts with other airborne compounds to form sulfates, tiny particles that block sunlight, with a cooling effect.
The recent drop in industrial pollution led to a surge in warming, according to the modeling study, published in Nature Communications Earth and Environment.
Prior research had linked the drop in sulfates to a rise in ocean warming in the Pacific. The new study is the first to link the pollution cleanup to a global uptick in heating dating back to around 2010. A 75 percent decline in sulfates in East Asia “has likely driven much of the recent global warming acceleration,” said lead author Bjørn H. Samset of the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research in Norway.
Researchers described the drop in pollution as an “unmasking” that revealed the true extent of climate change. With the mask now off, they say, the recent, unexplained acceleration in warming may come to an end.
ALSO ON YALE E360
A.I. Is Quietly Powering a Revolution in Weather Prediction
