Tropical storm warnings are flying for portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coast as sprawling Hurricane Erin chugs northward for a close pass expected Thursday by the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
At 2 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Hurricane Erin was centered about 335 miles (540 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, heading north at 13 mph (20 km/h). Satellite images showed that Erin was intensifying, with a prominent eye surrounded by a huge area of intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. Erin’s top sustained winds had increased to 110 mph (175 km/h), and the central pressure had fallen to 943 mb.
According to Michael Lowry, Erin’s central pressure is remarkably low for a 110 mph hurricane. In the satellite record, only Maria (2017), Irma (2017), Sandy (2012), Igor (2010), and Gloria (1985) had pressures as low as Erin’s with peak winds below Category 3 strength (the threshold for Category 3 winds is 115 mph).
Erin’s biggest threat: storm surge, waves, and rip currents
Erin is predicted to pass about 250 miles (400 km) east of the coast of North Carolina on Thursday, but tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding will begin affecting North Carolina’s Outer Banks by this evening. Erin’s large size — with hurricane-force winds that extended out up to 105 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds that extended out 265 miles — has enabled the hurricane to create a large expanse of huge waves, which have begun to impact most of the east coast of North America, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. These waves will cause considerable coastal erosion and dangerous rip currents.
Along the shores of portions of North Carolina, the waves will combine with a storm surge of two to four feet to produce damaging coastal flooding. NOAA’s National Water Prediction Service is forecasting that Erin’s storm surge will bring major flooding at three tide gauges during Thursday evening’s high tide along the northern North Carolina coast and to Chesapeake Bay in Virginia.
The most serious marine impacts will be in the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Waves could reach 10-20 feet in the surf zone atop Erin’s storm surge, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see at least a few vulnerable coastal homes heavily damaged or destroyed. Multiple cycles of high surf will slam the Outer Banks, closing and potentially damaging roadways and causing widespread beach erosion. Extensive heavy rain is not expected, but sustained winds could exceed tropical-storm-force (39 mph), with substantially higher gusts possible.
Forecast for Erin
Erin is predicted to have favorable conditions for intensification until Thursday, when increasing wind shear should induce a slow weakening trend. Ocean temperatures and dry air will also affect Erin beginning on Thursday, and by Sunday, Erin is expected to become an extratropical cyclone as it recurves northeastward out to sea just south of Newfoundland, Canada.
Two tropical waves to watch
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic was headed westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph (32 km/h) and will approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday. This wave was broad and disorganized and was suffering from ingestion of dry air along its northern edge, courtesy of the Saharan Air Layer. There is limited model support for the development of this disturbance over the next few days but more support for development to occur by Saturday or Sunday. The model consensus is for the disturbance to pass close to or a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands on Friday and Saturday and then turn more to the northwest and north toward Bermuda, heading for a weakness in the steering flow left behind by Erin.
In its 2 p.m. EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance two-day and seven-day odds of formation of 10% and 60%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Fernand.
A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic, just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, was headed west at about 15 mph (24 km/h). The system, designated 99L by the National Hurricane Center, has modestly favorable conditions for development, with sea surface temperatures near 28 degrees Celsius (82°F), moderate wind shear of 15-20 knots, and a moderately moist atmosphere with a midlevel relative humidity of about 60%.
Satellite images on Wednesday afternoon showed 99L had a decent-sized area of heavy thunderstorms featuring plenty of spin at midlevels of the atmosphere but no signs of a surface circulation. A large area of dry air to the north, associated with the Saharan Air Layer, was impeding development and will likely continue to do so during the week. Wind shear is predicted to rise to a very high 30-50 knots Thursday through Saturday, making development after today unlikely, and there is limited model support for the development of 99L over the next five days. In its 2 p.m. EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L two-day and seven-day odds of formation of 40%.
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