Following talks about Ukraine in Washington early this week, Western states are working to fine tune the details of the much-discussed “security guarantees” for Ukraine.
One important question is how a possible ceasefire could be secured along the more than 1,000-kilometer-long (621 miles) front line in eastern Ukraine. Another is which countries would be prepared to send soldiers to Ukraine? And how many, and with what sort of mandate?
US: No ground troops, but possible air support
US President Donald Trump has spoken positively about supporting security guarantees for Ukraine but has left open exactly what they should look like. He has categorically ruled out the deployment of US troops on the ground in Ukraine.
He seems to assume that Germany, France and the UK are prepared to send troops to Ukraine to secure peace, as he told US broadcaster Fox News after the talks in Washington. He suggested that the US would be prepared to provide air support.
Germany: Nothing is clear regarding security guarantees
The German government does not seem to be as far advanced in its decision-making as Trump might like. “Germany’s contribution to security guarantees has not yet been determined and this issue will be decided at the political and military levels,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday.
He added that there were still too many uncertainties, for example, regarding further negotiations as well as the contribution of the US and other allies.
“This will have to be discussed carefully. And these talks are currently taking place,” German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told DW. “So far Germany and its willingness to take responsibility in this conflict” cannot be described as lacking, he noted.
What remains unclear is what mandate any international peacekeeping force might have. Germany’s opposition Left Party (Die Linke) has expressed preference for a UN blue helmet deployment instead of a NATO-led mission so as to avoid any direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. Some members of Germany’s Social Democrats, who are part of the country’s ruling coalition, are also critical about NATO troops being deployed in Ukraine.
Britain: Starmer is ready to lead the way
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has shown himself to be open to sending a peacekeeping force to Ukraine in principle, but only in the event of a permanent ceasefire. Should this occur, London would be prepared to take a leading role in enforcing security guarantees for Ukraine, Starmer has said. This could also include the deployment of troops to monitor the ceasefire, for example.
In February, British newspaper The Telegraph reported on a plan by London that would send 30,000 European troops to police a ceasefire. These would be deployed to guard Ukraine’s cities and ports, as well as critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants, far from the front line. The mission would also rely heavily on technical surveillance. The use of drones, satellites, reconnaissance aircraft and naval patrols in the Black Sea were all possibilities.
In a virtual meeting with other leaders on Tuesday, Starmer said that, “Coalition of the Willing planning teams would meet with their US counterparts in the coming days to further strengthen plans to deliver robust security guarantees and prepare for the deployment of a reassurance force if the hostilities ended.”
France: Macron warns against a hasty peace
French President Emmanuel Macron recently warned against rushing into a deal without safeguards. “This peace must not be rushed and must be backed by solid guarantees, otherwise we will be starting over again,” he told French broadcaster TF1.
In the past, Macron has not ruled out sending French troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force.
In March, he presented a plan to send a “reassurance force” suggesting this might involve “a few thousand troops” per country, which would be stationed in “certain strategic locations” such as Kyiv, Odessa and Lviv. The mission would be defensive in nature, not for direct combat operations, and would act as a deterrent and for stabilization and training.
France has already carried out exercises in which conditions in Ukraine were simulated. During the maneuvers, soldiers received training on how to behave in the event of a Russian attack via Belarus. Drone defense, electronic warfare and tactical coordination were also part of the training.
Not all European states want to send troops
Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal and the Baltic states have also signaled their willingness to participate in a possible peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
However other European states are more cautious. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk rejects the deployment of Polish soldiers, which he says, would be extremely unpopular with the Polish population. Polls say that 85% of Poles reject the deployment of their own soldiers, even for a peacekeeping mission.
Hungary and Slovakia are also opposed to the deployment of European troops. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has even described the possible deployment of Western troops as “warmongering.”
Austria and Italy are also cautious. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is particularly skeptical about the deployment of NATO troops and would prefer a UN-led mission. Meloni has so far avoided making any clear commitments.
Germany’s FM Wadephul: ‘We are all waiting for Russia’
In any case, nothing will happen without a prior agreement with Russia. But Moscow has so far categorically rejected the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine and there is little indication that would change, even if there are signs that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy could soon meet in person.
German Foreign Minister Wadephul remains skeptical. “I would advise that we first wait and see whether there are any talks at all,” he told DW. “And secondly, if there are talks, whether there is an agreement that is resilient. And there, we are all waiting for Russia.”
This article was originally published in German.
