Virtually everyone has an opinion on the housing market, but when Kevin O’Leary offers his take, people tend to listen.
The popular investor and “Shark Tank” star just dropped a sharp take that effectively cuts through the noise and makes waves for a reason.
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Though his views encompass home prices and interest rates, it’s more about what’s not happening — and why — that silence matters more than ever.
For those betting on a potential recovery or waiting for relief, you’ll want to hear what he said and its implications for the next six to 12 months.
Who is Kevin O’Leary?
Kevin O’Leary, popularly known as “Mr. Wonderful,” is far from being just a TV personality.
The Canadian investing giant and entrepreneur burst onto the scene when he made his first fortune by co-founding SoftKey, later called The Learning Company. In 1999, he sold that company to entertainment powerhouse Mattel for roughly $4.2 billion.
Today, according to recent estimates from Fortune, O’Leary’s boasts a net worth that hovers around the $400 million mark.
Related: Moody’s chief who nailed 2007 housing bust revives recession fears
Money aside, his massive influence comes from visibility on TV, online, and in deal flow.
Since being part of ABC’s long-running “Shark Tank,” O’Leary has built a robust seed-to-growth portfolio through O’Leary Ventures.
Third-party estimates show that he’s thrown in north of $8.5 million across 40 different companies on the show.
Some of his biggest wins include GrooveBook, which Shutterfly acquired for $14.5 million. Basepaws is another; the pet DNA startup sold to Zoetis in a deal that reportedly delivered a 20x return.
O’Leary’s influence clearly goes well beyond the boardroom with his “cash flow is king” deal style, helping him strike a chord with his viewers. For perspective, his combined audience is over three million on Instagram and X.
Kevin O’Leary says the housing market is frozen
Kevin O’Leary dropped a scathing take on the housing market in an X post on August 21, arguing that the housing market is essentially frozen until rates fall meaningfully.
“The housing market is frozen. Prices are up, inventory is down, and with mortgage rates stuck above 7%, both buyers and sellers are paralyzed. Everyone is praying the Fed will cut rates, but let me be clear: It’s NOT happening anytime soon.
“Here’s the reality….Unless mortgage rates drop to around 5.5%, housing is not going to turn….Plan for today’s rates, not fantasy rates.”
His take is supported by a ton of data showing affordability is still remarkably stretched and activity is mostly subdued.
Mortgage rates are cooling, but not enough to push the needle. The 30-year average sits near 6.58%, which, despite being down from last year’s highs, is still almost double what buyers paid before 2022.
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Consequently, mortgage applications dropped 1.4% last week, and it’s a big part of why June’s median home price hit a record $435,300.
Inventory is crawling higher, too.
July’s for-sale count shot up 24.8% year-over-year, but still remains 13.4% below pre-pandemic levels.
Builders are feeling the heat as well, with sentiment just hitting a NAHB 32 (the worst since 2022), and two-thirds are offering incentives to move inventory. Over a third are cutting prices, a stark reality of the current sluggishness in the housing space.
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Moreover, a big part of the market’s lackluster showing is that 81% of mortgage holders have rates under 6%, and over 50% are locked in below 4%.
That’s the “golden handcuffs” effect, where move-up sellers won’t budge, and first-time buyers are compelled to sacrifice space in affording monthly payments.
O’Leary on tariff fog, rate-cut odds
“Powell is not moving until he knows exactly where tariffs land. Right now, CEOs across America have no idea if they are facing a 10% tariff or a 35% tariff, and that kind of uncertainty makes it impossible for the Fed to predict inflation. So the safest move is to sit on their hands and do nothing.”
Kevin O’Leary’s view is more aligned with reality than markets may want to admit.
Futures are currently showing rate odds near 80% for September, though Fed officials keep signaling hesitation. Perhaps the most obvious reason for that is tariffs.
With new U.S. levies now ranging from 10% to 50%, and some floated as high as 100%, it’s virtually impossible for CFOs to predict pricing power or margin risk. That leaves Jerome Powell behind the 8-ball on inflation forecasts.
At Jackson Hole, he’s likely to double down on a “data-dependent” stance, which aligns with his five straight holds this year.
Policymakers are sweating over tariff pass-through effects and whether they could reignite inflation, which makes preemptive cuts risky.
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