Tensions in Serbia are high. Each day, there are new reports of police violence and arrests against demonstrators, along with accusations that the Western Balkan country’s government is hiring criminal gangs to attack its own population.
Anti-corruption protests have been ongoing since 16 people were killed when a railway station canopy collapsed in the northern city of Novi Sad in November 2024. The demonstrations began peacefully, but in recent days, violence has escalated in the capital Belgrade and beyond. The country’s right-wing populist president, Aleksandar Vucic, appears to be taking a harder line in response to the civil outcry.
Serbia has been a candidate for European Union membership since 2012, compelling Brussels to respond to the latest escalations. EU ambassador to Serbia, Andreas von Beckerath, issued a statement calling on “all sides to de-escalate tensions.” Any suspicion of excessive use of force by the police must be properly investigated, he said.
The European Commission told DW that it was closely monitoring the situation. “The right to peaceful demonstration and freedom of assembly must be respected, and the authorities must protect participants in assemblies from harm or violence,” said spokesperson Guillaume Mercier.
But many politicians and observers feel that such statements don’t go far enough. For months, they have been calling for a tougher stance toward Vucic’s government.
EU’s ‘strategy of appeasement has failed’
One such critic is Croatian lawmaker Tonino Picula, European Parliament’s envoy for Serbia. On Wednesday, he reproached Brussels for failing to take a more unified critical stance.
“The EU currently has neither the incentive nor the capacity to behave differently toward Aleksandar Vucic’s regime,” he told Balkan broadcaster N1. “Unlike in Ukraine, there is a lack of unity here to build pressure.”
Strategic interests for both Brussels and Belgrade could play a role here: in 2024, the EU signed an agreement with Serbia that secured access to the country’s substantial lithium reserves. Serbia has also skillfully played on its friendly relations with Russia, said regional security expert Antigona Imeri of the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank. Concerns about a rapprochement with Russia has made Europe too lenient, she said.
“This strategy of appeasement has failed, and the EU must now urgently strike a different tone,” said Imeri.
Waning support for EU accession
But even after the recent escalation of violence, the EU has continued to conduct business as usual without explicitly holding Belgrade accountable. “This is understandable from a geopolitical perspective, but it becomes problematic when it gives the impression of compromising the fundamental values of the union,” said Imeri.
This impression undermines many people’s already wavering trust in the EU. A survey conducted this spring by the US-based International Republican Institute found that only 40% of respondents said they would vote in favor of their country joining the 27-member union. More than half said they no longer believed that the EU is seriously interested in accepting Western Balkan states.
Serbia, EU enjoy vital economic partnership
But not all experts find Brussels’ strategy toward Belgrade problematic. “It’s too early to assess the EU’s position on this issue,” said Nina Vujanovic of the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, adding that the EU has signaled that it is monitoring the situation and must continue to do so.
Instead of exerting pressure, Brussels should focus on economic incentives, she said. “Serbia has a far greater economic interest in implementing EU reforms than in turning to Russia,” said Vujanovic. It has already been firmly linked to the EU economically for some time: more than 60% of Serbian exports go to the EU, which in turn provides over 60% of foreign direct investment in the country.
How much leeway does Brussels have?
Economic measures could therefore be used to pressure on Vucic and his regime, said Vujanovic. The EU has promised Serbia an impressive €1.6 billion ($1.88 billion) by 2027, but these funds are tied to the implementation of reforms.
“The EU could cut these funds or delay disbursement if it determines that a country is not fulfilling its obligations,” said Vujanovic.
As things stand, Serbia seems far from implementing the reforms needed for EU membership. An EU report published in July on the rule of law there noted that, among other things, strong political pressure continues to be exerted on the judiciary and individuals within civil society. There is also growing concern about the safety of journalists, the report said.
This is precisely what students and many other citizens have been protesting for months — despite the risk of arrest or injury by the police. If such violence does not subside amid these demonstrations, the EU could come under increasing pressure to take a clearer stance.
This article was originally written in German.
Contributors: Sanja Kljajic and Martina Domladovac.
