Georgians are on the streets protesting following the government’s announcement it would pause the process to join the European Union until at least 2028.
The protests come amid a greater, global power struggle over the country’s place in the world order. The protesters — as well as the European Union and the United States — are pushing for a more democratic society that’s aligned with the West. The ruling party, Georgian Dream, meanwhile, is cracking down on liberal democracy while aligning the state more closely with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Over the past year, Georgian Dream has taken a number of undemocratic actions. Those include crackdowns on LGBTQ people, civil society, and press organizations. Those laws, plus a potentially tainted parliamentary election in October, have protesters concerned that the country is moving further away from European-style liberal democracy and toward autocracy.
The stakes for Georgian democracy are high; Georgian Dream appears to have decided it must embrace authoritarian tactics to remain in power, and the EU accession plan is an important and powerful barrier to that. EU and NATO accession are also popular among the Georgian population, hence the enormous and contentious protests going on right now in the capital city of Tbilisi and other major cities.
Now the question is whether Georgia’s democracy, such as it is, can be reoriented toward Europe and the West, or whether its fate is more along the lines of Belarus, the Russia-aligned Eastern European state ruled by dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko.
Georgian Dream’s latest move away from European liberal democracy may be a boon for Russia, Sam Greene, director of Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Vox.
“I think Moscow sees Georgia as a test case to show that it can maintain regional hegemony even after significant depredations,” such as the punishing, nearly three-year invasion of Ukraine, Greene said. “They may believe that their ability to maintain Georgia’s allegiance is a harbinger of things that may come in Ukraine — although I think they’re wrong. What’s more likely true is that they see it as a nice black eye to the EU.”
But while Georgia’s current political crisis is caught up in a conflict between Russia and the West, the situation is complicated by the country’s internal struggle for democracy.
The fight for Georgia’s place in the world
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced Thursday that the government suspended talks to join the EU until 2028, and that Georgia would refuse all EU funding till then as well. Georgia’s constitution requires government officials to work toward EU membership, and some have resigned in protests of Kobakhidze’s decision.
But the EU had already shut down those talks back in June, after the government enacted two concerning laws. The first severely curtailed LGBTQ rights, including abolishing same-sex marriage, the right of same-sex couples to adopt, and media depictions of LGBTQ people. The second targeted nongovernmental organizations and independent press.
Both are similar to Russian laws that have significantly curtailed the right to protest and organize, as well as the flow of independent information there.
“In Georgia, the protest is against … the Putinist type of governance which is autocratic, which is anti-Western, and tries to generate support among masses through populism, conservatism, and appeal to traditional values and so on,” Natalie Sabanadze, senior researcher in the Russia and Eurasia program at UK think tank Chatham House, told Vox. “Fundamentally, it is anti-Western, anti-liberal, and it is about one-party rule with fake opposition, and everybody else either leaves the country or is in jail.”
The US responded forcefully to the pause in accession talks. “By suspending Georgia’s EU accession process, Georgian Dream has rejected the opportunity for closer ties with Europe and made Georgia more vulnerable to the Kremlin,” the State Department said in a statement. “The Georgian people overwhelmingly support integration with Europe.”
The EU’s response has been less firm; while the bloc “regrets” the Georgian government’s decision to pause the negotiation process and halt EU funding, the statement thus far does not outline consequences for Kobakhidze’s decision, nor does it indicate how the EU and Georgian Dream will navigate this crisis if indeed the door to EU accession remains open. That, Sabanadze said, indicates a lack of consensus and a lack of leadership on the EU’s part.
That lack of clarity and consensus in the face of increasing illiberalism and democratic backsliding weakens its position in the world, Sabanadze said. “That is a big blow, in my view, to the EU, as a normative, transformative power, which was very much part of its identity up until now,” she said.
It’s not just about Russia vs. the West
Georgia declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 but has never made a full transition to a consolidated democratic system. There are elections, and there has historically been space for opposition and freedom of expression, especially against the government’s more autocratic excesses. But the government and its institutions have taken the character of a hybrid regime — a government that uses the democratic processes to consolidate power for the benefit of a select few.
The decision to move toward the EU and NATO was initially a pragmatic one, specifically aimed at protecting Georgia’s sovereignty, which has been tenuous following Putin’s rise to power; Russia invaded in 2008, destabilizing the country’s democratic transition.
The country’s aspirations to join the EU require democratic reforms such as increased judicial independence, as well as fighting disinformation and tackling political polarization — none of which are in the interest of an increasingly autocratic government trying to maintain power. Georgian Dream has changed significantly over its 12 years in power, shifting from a progressive multiparty coalition to a right-wing party headed by a billionaire who has threatened to ban opposition parties. Georgian Dream has become increasingly unpopular as it has shifted to the right, consolidated power, and also failed to improve Georgians’ material conditions; controlling state institutions and polarizing the electorate with extremist disinformation are part of the path to maintaining power.
Some, however, see increasingly complex Russian meddling in Georgia’s affairs, especially following contentious parliamentary elections in October. Outside and internal elections observers reported voting irregularities, and protesters and opposition politicians have called for new elections.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean Russia is directing the Georgian move toward authoritarianism, both Greene and Sabanadze said: Georgian Dream is also trying to keep hold of power at home.
“I often say that the government is pro-Russian, maybe not necessarily by intent, but that’s definitely the effect,” Sabanadze said. “So the effect of this is Russia strengthening its position in the South Caucasus, Russia having a regime that it’s much more comfortable with, that it can do business with. But what motivates the Georgian Dream, whether it is necessarily love for Russia or rapprochement [with] Russia or rather love for power and the ability to and the need to stay there and take Georgia in a different direction, that’s a more complex question to be honest.”
