As Liberals hemorrhage support in Quebec, it’s every MP for themselves

Article content

OTTAWA — It was a beautiful evening in Old Montreal. The sun wasn’t quite setting and the temperature was a perfect 25 degrees Celsius.

Article content

Article content

But that was outside the swanky Place d’Armes Hotel. Inside, the atmosphere was chillier.

Gathering only 87 people in a ballroom for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly wasn’t exactly what the Liberal Party of Canada was hoping for at one of its major fundraisers of the summer.

Article content

“We’re going to need more people in a room like this to face the coming year, because it’s going to be difficult,” Liberal national campaign co-chair Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada told the crowd at the time.

A week later, Pierre Poilievre and his federal Conservative party reportedly raised $450,000 in Mount Royal at a single event where 223 people gathered in the Liberal stronghold once represented by former prime minister Pierre Trudeau.

These are just some of the signs that the anything-but-Liberals movement is gaining ground in the party’s last stronghold of Quebec, and that even top ministers’ and the prime minister’s seats are no longer considered safe, by pollsters.

Joly, who organized the July fundraiser and was once seen as one of Quebec’s most prodigious Liberal fundraisers, has been overtaken on the fundraising circuit by her Quebec colleague François-Philippe Champagne, who is now co-chair of the campaign in the province.

There has been widespread speculation within the Liberal party following a glowing profile of Joly in the New York Times that the foreign affairs minister might be gunning for Trudeau’s job. In the wake of last summer’s devastating Toronto—St. Paul’s by-election loss for the Liberals and disappointing fundraising in her hometown, she gave an interview to the Times in which she discussed her relationship with the prime minister and her political upheaval.

Article content

Article content

“It’s not new that Mélanie is positioning herself. It’s maybe the worst-kept secret in Ottawa,” said Jeremy Ghio, her former adviser.

“But she’s never going to stick a knife in Justin Trudeau’s back,” he added. That’s because they’ve known each other for a very long time and because Joly owes her boss a huge debt.

“I am of course 100-per-cent supportive of the prime minister and I’ve been since 2012,” she recently told reporters on Parliament Hill.

Before she became Canada’s top diplomat, Joly was known for her ability to build relationships and work a room. Several sources told National Post that the minister is now less of a presence with her colleagues, that “people like her,” but that “the respect is not there.”

Joly said last week that she is working hard in her portfolio on issues such as the Middle East, Ukraine, the United States and China.

“My job is to do my job,” she said.

But her job is getting harder. Her performance as a minister is being criticized among her colleagues, insiders report. And in her own riding of Ahuntsic-Cartierville, where she easily won the last election with 52 per cent of the popular vote, the threat from the Bloc Québécois is real.

Article content

According to polling aggregator 338Canada, Joly is now at 31 per cent, in a toss-up with the Bloc. The nearby riding of Lasalle—Émard—Verdun, previously a Liberal riding previously held for nearly a decade by her former cabinet colleague David Lametti, fell to the Bloc in a September by-election.

Joly’s not alone in this sinking red ship. Polls suggest Mount Royal, held by the Liberals since the Second World War, is now seemingly up for grabs for the Tories and even the prime minister’s seat in Papineau is no longer considered “safe.”

“Of course, usually for ministers and the prime minister, there’s some kind of bonus in the polls. But there’s no bonus in the polls when your approval rating is –40 or –35 (per cent),” said Philippe J. Fournier, who runs 338Canada.

The poll aggregator isn’t perfect, but its latest predictions for the by-elections in Durham (won by Conservatives), Toronto—St. Paul’s and LaSalle-Émard-Verdun were spot on.

Trudeau won his Papineau seat with more than 50 per cent of the vote in the last two elections. If an election were held today, polls suggest he would hardly get more than 34 per cent of the vote, with only a five-point lead over the NDP.

Article content

Outside Montreal, Champagne is now seven points behind the Bloc in Saint-Maurice—Champlain. The Liberals are now polling third among francophone voters in the province, behind the Bloc and the Conservatives.

Several sources said the party is struggling to find strong candidates. Money isn’t coming in like it used to, even though the party says it had its best November in digital fundraising since 2015.

“This year alone… we’ve already trained thousands of volunteers across Quebec and Canada through more than 36 Campaign Colleges ahead of the next election,” said the Liberal party’s director of communication Parker Lund in an email to the National Post.

Lund insists the party is in good hands with Andrew Bevan as its new national campaign director, Marjorie Michel as deputy, and MPs Terry Duguid and Soraya Martinez Ferrada as campaign co-chairs.

Martinez Ferrada, however, is at risk of losing her Montreal seat to the Bloc, a party that didn’t have high hopes for Quebec’s largest city a few months ago.

“Is there even a pilot on the plane?” a Liberal insider recently asked, echoing the question many volunteers in local associations are asking.

Article content

On Nov. 12, Martinez Ferrada was organizing a fundraiser in Montreal. At the same time, a few kilometres away in the Montreal suburb of Brossard, Champagne was doing exactly the same thing.

Parties normally stagger fundraisers to avoid competing with each other, and the party has not addressed the double-booking. Both events had fewer than 60 attendees. The dismal situation in Quebec could mean MPs are now focused on self-preservation.

“We only think about ourselves. It’s that simple,” said a Quebec MP who declined to be identified for fear of reprisal.

In an interview with National Post, the Liberals’ Quebec lieutenant Jean-Yves Duclos admitted that there are “more nervous MPs” in caucus.

“A governing party has challenges in preparing for elections that opposition parties don’t necessarily have. A governing party will often talk about its policies and forget to make the contrast with other political parties,” said Duclos.

According to multiple sources, many Quebec staffers have left the government since former cabinet minister Pablo Rodriguez resigned to run for the provincial Liberal leadership in September.

Article content

“Seriously, why would I stay there? Justin Trudeau could lose every riding, and he’d still be the leader,” said one former Liberal staffer.

“There’s no sense of urgency. Liberal members know Trudeau has to go. But it’s a cult,”

National Post
atrepanier@postmedia.com 

Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here. 

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.

Article content