Unger pointed out that consumers don’t change home heating appliances as frequently as cars, a nod to the recent growth of electric vehicle sales. Contractors are also apt to move cautiously because they want to be sure that a technology will work for their business model before committing to it.
A medley of factors are causing heat pump sales to grow, according to experts Canary Media spoke to. Firstly, consumers and contractors are gaining more familiarity with the tech and having better experiences, Unger said.
Advances in heat pump technology have made it well-suited to some of the coldest climes in the U.S. Just look to Maine; heat pumps proved so popular there that the wintry state blew past its 2025 installation goal two years ahead of schedule. Certain heat pump models can work well below –22 degrees Fahrenheit. And the tech’s performance keeps getting better.
Plus, many states and local jurisdictions are pushing hard for heat pumps.
In 2023, 25 governors signed on to install 20 million of the clean heating machines by 2030. Last year, nine states — California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Rhode Island — raised the stakes by pledging that heat pumps will make up at least 65% of residential heating and cooling equipment sales by the end of the decade. California’s new energy code also encourages builders to install heat pumps instead of gas heating. And the San Francisco Bay Area will make heat pumps the de facto choice when it bars new gas furnaces starting in 2029.
Federal and local incentives are also helping people afford heat pumps. Installation costs for these systems are on average $17,000 to $30,000, depending on many factors including local climate and home insulation, per Rewiring America.
The Inflation Reduction Act, the most ambitious climate legislation in history, gave Americans state-distributed home energy rebates of up to $8,000 as well as a $2,000 federal tax credit to defray the costs of getting a heat pump. But how long these incentives might last under the Trump administration is an open question.
Thanks to steady growth in heat pump sales thus far, the U.S. is now among the top countries quickly transitioning from oil and gas heating to heat pumps, said Kevin Carbonnier, building technology market expert at the nonprofit Building Decarbonization Coalition.
What will it take to drive heat pump sales even higher in the U.S.? Stakeholders need to educate consumers and provide resources to make switching as easy and compelling as possible, said Wael Kanj, senior research associate at Rewiring America. Seeing the most recent data, “We know that we’re moving in the right direction.”
