A newly discovered asteroid larger than an Olympic swimming pool has caught the attention of international space agencies, as scientists calculate it has a small but notable chance of striking Earth in December 2032.
The European Space Agency (ESA) announced today that asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered last month by Chilean astronomers, has risen to the top of their asteroid risk list. While there’s a 99% chance of a safe passage, the remaining 1.2% probability of impact has triggered international response protocols.
The space rock, measuring between 40 and 100 meters wide, was first spotted on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in RÃo Hurtado, Chile. An object of this size typically impacts Earth only once every few thousand years but could devastate a local region if it struck.
The asteroid’s potential threat has reached Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, warranting attention from both astronomers and the public. This development has activated two United Nations-endorsed asteroid response groups, marking a significant escalation in monitoring efforts.
Tracking the object presents unique challenges. The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth in an almost straight line, making precise orbit calculations difficult. Even more concerning, scientists may lose sight of it entirely until 2028, leaving a four-year gap in observation opportunities.
In response to this potential threat, the ESA’s Planetary Defence Office is coordinating an international observation campaign. The effort will culminate in deploying the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in Chile, one of Earth’s most powerful eyes on the sky.
The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, chaired by ESA, will meet in Vienna next week to evaluate potential spacecraft-based responses to the hazard. This marks one of the first times international authorities have needed to consider active intervention options for a verified impact risk.
This detection reflects improvements in asteroid survey technology, suggesting we may identify more potential threats that previously went unnoticed. As our capability to spot these cosmic visitors increases, so does our ability to prepare for potential impacts.
The current 1.2% impact probability calculation comes from three independent sources: ESA, NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), and NEODyS, providing a robust consensus on the risk assessment.
Scientists emphasize that such preliminary impact probabilities often increase initially before dropping to zero as more observational data becomes available. However, if the asteroid fades from view before astronomers can rule out an impact, it will remain on ESA’s risk list until it becomes observable again in 2028.
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