Much attention has focused on China’s recent approval of a massive hydropower dam but less has been said about the next crucial step in the country’s water management strategy – the creation of a national water grid.
Will it become the long-awaited solution to the country’s water challenges, or is it another ambitious venture destined to run dry?
In many ways, China’s history is shaped by its relationship with water. Its river systems, topography, and hydrological conditions have played an integral role in the country’s development.
Historiographers often note that these conditions were integral to the creation of three historical miracles: China, Chinese civilization and the Chinese people. This long-standing connection between China and its waterways provides the backdrop for understanding the nation’s modern water management challenges.
Water holds profound significance in Chinese history as both a vital resource and a symbol of power. Chinese rulers have long understood the importance of water in maintaining political stability. This dates back over 4,000 years to Yu the Great of the Xia Dynasty, who is said to have tamed the Yellow River.
More recently, water governance has remained central to China’s development goals, as evidenced by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “ecological civilization” concept and a book he published on water governance.
The latest stage in China’s water management is the creation of a national water grid. This project aims to ensure a more balance water availability across the country and also address scarcity in northern China. Connected to the South-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP), the national water grid system is known as the sanzhong siheng.
“Sanzhong” refers to the SNWTP’s three routes:
- the eastern route, via the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal;
- the middle route, from the Danjiangkou Reservoir in Hubei to Beijing and Tianjin; and
- the controversial western route.
“Siheng” refers to the four eastern-flowing rivers: Haihe, Yellow, Huaihe and Yangtze.
Onw key component of the three “sanzhong” – the western route – has not yet been built. While the middle and eastern routes have been built, the western route remains in the planning stage.
According to official plans, the western route aims to divert 17 billion cubic meters of water annually from the upper Yangtze River to the upper Yellow River via the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. But the complexity and scale of this infrastructure project make its successful completion uncertain, adding an element of risk to the overall strategy.
The purpose of the water grid is to address China’s critical water challenges. Despite holding around 6 percent of the world’s water resources, the country currently faces significant water challenges largely due to water quality concerns, uneven water distribution, and a per capita water availability below global average.
These concerns are worsened by competing water needs from industrialization, agricultural demands and rapid urbanization.
The national water grid holds challenges and implications for China. It undoubtedly reflects Beijing’s reliance on large-scale infrastructure projects to solve water issues.
This engineering-driven approach, rooted in Chairman Mao Zedong’s belief that “man must conquer nature,” has led China to embark on more than 100 diversion projects in the past decade alone. Although these projects represent a concerted effort to address water scarcity, they also highlight the limitations of relying solely on engineering to solve complex environmental problems.
Concurrently, China’s national water grid aims to further secure the water supply to the northern region.
The Chinese central government’s solution to the region’s water scarcity – large-scale hydro-engineering projects – has reshaped water distribution, easing scarcity in northern China. But has come at a high price. It has made the North China Plain reliant on the SNWTP for water supply.
For example, Beijing, which remains vulnerable to drought, sources over 70 percent of the city’s water from this inter-basin transfer project.
Such dependence on a single source poses risks to long-term water security, especially in the face of unpredictable climatic or infrastructural disruptions. In this light, the national water grid can help sought efforts to secure the water supply of this rapidly industrialised and urbanized arid region.
Major challenges remain. Climate change impacts – in particular, severe and disruptive extreme weather events – are one of the biggest concerns. Estimates suggest that their growing frequency and intensity will cost China over US$47 billion annually, complicating efforts to manage the national grid effectively. The impact of climate change will likely require continuous adjustments to the national water grid, further testing its resilience.
Equally concerning is the question of financing. With local governments trapped in a vicious cycle of high debt and dwindling revenues and government debt expected to rise to nearly 150 percent of gross domestic product by 2030, it remains unclear how China will fund such ambitious infrastructure projects.
The continued focus on supply-side solutions, particularly via engineering projects to redistribute water, is another major concern. This approach can lead to unintended consequences, such as water shortages downstream from diversion projects.
For example, the transfer of water to the north via the Danjiangkou Reservoir has depleted water in the downstream Han River. These challenges highlight the limitations of focusing only on supply-side measures without addressing issues related to water efficiency or consumption.
Going forward, Beijing should consider adopting a more balanced approach to ensure a resilient water management system by also investing in demand-side strategies to improve water efficiency and reduce consumption. By balancing supply-side solutions with demand-side measures, China can create a more sustainable and resilient water management system.
Although the national water grid represents a bold step toward securing China’s water future, it must be accompanied by a comprehensive strategy that addresses both supply and demand issues. Only then can the country effectively safeguard its water resources.
Genevieve Donnellon-May is a researcher at Oxford Global Society and a fellow at the Indo-Pacific Studies Center. She sits on the advisory board member of Modern Diplomacy and was recognized as a 2023 Pacific Forum young leader.
