NASA Monitors Asteroid 2024 YR4: Risk Decreases, But Lunar Impact Possible
NASA astronomers are closely tracking the trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR4. Initial calculations estimated a 1.3% chance of an Earth impact, which briefly rose to 3.1% as more data became available. However, recent analysis brings reassuring news— the probability of Earth impact has now dropped significantly to 0.28%. That said, calculations indicate a slight increase in the chance of a lunar impact, now at 1%. Observations will continue using the James Webb Space Telescope, so stay tuned for updates.
Asteroids are rocky remnants from the formation of our Solar System about 4.6 billion years ago. They vary in size from tiny pebbles to massive bodies spanning hundreds of kilometers. While most reside in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, some follow paths that bring them closer to Earth. Occasionally, they pose a potential threat, which is why astronomers continuously monitor their orbits and develop possible deflection strategies.
The Discovery of Asteroid 2024 YR4
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has dominated media headlines in recent weeks. This near-Earth object was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile. Initially, it had one of the highest impact probabilities ever recorded, with a 1.3% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. Further observations temporarily increased that risk, but ongoing monitoring has now eased concerns.
The Role of ATLAS in Detecting Threats
ATLAS, developed by the University of Hawaii and funded by NASA, is a global network of telescopes designed to detect near-Earth objects (NEOs) before they pose a potential threat. Since its launch, ATLAS has discovered thousands of asteroids, including hazardous ones like 2024 YR4. Its continuous sky surveys help provide timely warnings, allowing for crucial impact mitigation efforts.
Understanding Asteroid Trajectories
Predicting an asteroid’s path requires time and repeated observations. Imagine a tennis match—when a ball is hit over the net, a photographer in the crowd captures a snapshot. The image shows the ball’s exact position at that moment but doesn’t reveal its trajectory. Similarly, a single observation of an asteroid tells us where it is, but multiple observations are needed to determine its future course.
On the night of February 19-20, further observations of 2024 YR4 provided encouraging updates. NASA’s planetary defense team confirmed that the Earth impact probability has dropped to 0.28%. While the risk of a lunar impact has increased slightly to 1%, these figures remain extremely low. Nonetheless, astronomers will continue monitoring the asteroid’s path in the coming months to refine predictions and ensure safety.
