ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s debt service in 2025 is estimated at 2,454 million dollars made up of 1,369 million dollars in capital repayments and 1,085 million dollars in interest, Deputy Minister of Economic Development Anil Jayantha has said.
In 2026, principal payments are 1,191 million dollars and interest 931 million dollars.
In 2027, principal are 1,196 million dollars and interest 893 million dollars.
In 2028, principal are 2,133 million dollars and interest 974 million dollars.
Under the International Monetary Fund program, projections were made in a June 2024 IMF report, of 7,184 million dollars for 2025 and going up to 15,105 million dollars, Minister Jayantha said in parliament, answering a question by opposition legislator Ravi Karunanayake.
The projections would be revised periodically, he said.
The actual reserve collections under the IMF program were contained in a net international reserve target, as a quantitative performance criteria, all of which have so far been met, Minister Jayantha said.
Net international reserves are gross reserves less reserve-related liabilities.
In Sri Lanka, the central bank borrowed dollars heavily from various sources including the International Monetary Fund, India and local banks to mistarget a policy rate through inflationary open market operations.
Over the past two years the central bank had settled its borrowings from Bangladesh and some of the loans from the Reserve Bank of India and the IMF.
There have been calls for parliament to ban the ability of the central bank to borrow foreign exchange through swaps and lose them by targeting a policy rate.
Related Central bank swaps symptomatic of Sri Lanka’s IMF return tickets and default
Under fixed policy rate, a central bank offsets forex reserve sales by printing money into banks, preventing rates from going up via inflationary open market operations. The new injections prevent reserve money, bank rupee reserves and credit from going down in step with dollar outflows.
At the height of the crisis in 2024, the central bank’s net reserves dipped to a negative 4.6 billion US dollars.
They returned to positive territory a few months ago, amid deflationary open market operations.
Analysts had warned that under a single policy rate, which tends to involve an abundant reserve regime (excess liquidity generated from domestic assets) the central bank could trigger forex shortages and more crises as mid-corridor rate targeting did from 2015. (Colombo/Feb23/2025)
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