Consumers grew more pessimistic about the economic outlook in February as worries brewed about a slowing economy and rising inflation, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.
The board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 98.3 for the month, down 7 points and below the Dow Jones forecast for 102.3. This was the lowest reading since June 2024 and the largest monthly drop since August 2021.
“Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income,” said Stephanie Guichard, the board’s senior economist for global indicators. “Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.”
The decline in consumer confidence comes with President Donald Trump threatening additional tariffs against U.S. trading partners. Trump said Monday that duties against Canada and Mexico “will go forward” in March after a delay in February.
Economists worry that the tariffs could spark another round of inflation at a time when the Federal Reserve is considering whether to lower interest rates further or hold steady as policymakers weigh the impact of Trump’s aggressive fiscal and trade policy moves.
Consumer are worried as well: 12-month inflation expectations jumped to 6%, up from 5.2% the prior month and well ahead of the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
“This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs,” Guichard said. “There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019. Most notably, comments on the current Administration and its policies dominated the responses.”
“We should expect some short-term behavioral shifts within the consumer,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief U.S. economist at LPL Financial. “Consumers are increasingly nervous about the unknow impacts from potential tariffs and could pull forward consumer demand as they anticipate higher prices for imports in the near future.”
Stocks briefly moved lower following the release while Treasury yields added to a sharp slide on the day. The 10-year Treasury yield, a traditional barometer for growth expectations, fell nearly 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, to 4.29%.
Though most economic indicators reflect continued growth, the Conference Board gauge matches other recent surveys showing waning confidence. Last week, the University of Michigan reported a larger-than-expected monthly decrease of nearly 10% in February while the five-year inflation outlook among respondents hit its highest level since 1995.
In the Conference Board survey, the decline came across age groups and income levels. The survey covered the time period up to Feb. 19.
Along with the overall drop in confidence, the Expectations Index tumbled 9.3 points to a 72.9 reading, the first time since June 2024 that the measure has fallen below the level consistent with recession. However, the current conditions measured improved somewhat, with 19.6% saying conditions are “good,” up 1.1 percentage point from January.
However, a closely watched measure of the labor market saw a worsening, with 33.4% saying that jobs were “plentiful” while 16.3% said positions are “hard to get.” That compared to respective readings of 33.9% and 14.5% in January.
