What next for Ukraine?

Nobody had ever seen anything like it in the Oval Office. The White House talks between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy last Friday had the quality of a WWE wrestling match, which is something that the US president has long taken political inspiration from. The emotions, the spectacle, the over-the-top quality of every moment was exactly what he brought to the interaction, which he said was “going to be great television”. I know that some people believe the Ukrainian leader bungled things by not fawning over Trump, but frankly I’m so glad that Zelenskyy had the self-respect to stand up to the bullying. Nothing good can come from interacting with a narcissist when their ego integrity has been challenged.

Prior to the meeting, Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, had lauded Trump’s mineral deal with Kyiv, an agreement that would set up a “joint investment fund” into which Ukraine would pay 50 per cent of all revenues earned from its natural resources. “This is Donald Trump the dealmaker and peacemaker on display,” Graham said, before heading to the White House to attend the signing ceremony.

Now, of course, that’s on hold. And I think that’s probably a very good thing. The deal didn’t include any firm US security guarantees, and even if it had, who would trust Trump to keep a promise? He’s already lied about the amount of support that the US has given Ukraine (he says $350bn, while the real tally is about $120bn, according to the Kiel Institute think-tank), called Zelenskyy a “dictator” and let it be known that he views the country itself as just another chip on the giant geopolitical poker table, one to be thrown around at his own discretion.

Although I could see the need for Ukraine to cut a deal with the US for continued support, the idea of monetising natural resources in this way struck me as all too akin to the offer to buy Greenland, or turn Gaza into a resort. This is how autocrats do business. And deals with them never end well.

But it is the approach that we will continue to see from Trump. The first column that I wrote when he was elected was entitled “America Inc’s New CEO,” and I stand by the premise, which is that Trump is first and foremost about commerce, and the US will increasingly be run like a company, not a country. Witness Elon Musk’s zero-sum budgeting, in which each agency in the federal government must justify its existence on an ongoing basis, just as a corporate division would. Or look at the recent plan to create a “gold card” in which rich expats can pony up $5mn to live and work in the US. I guess the big question is how many of them will want to.

But a more important question is what happens to Ukraine now, following this horrible exchange? Alec, you are in Kyiv, and I’m keen to hear your predictions on that, as well as your thoughts about how the unprecedented conversation between Trump and Zelenskyy went down there. Finally, I’m curious how Ukraine, Europe and other US allies (assuming they still are) are rejiggering their foreign policies to deal with America Inc?

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• The way in which super-billionaires are pulling away from regular billionaires was quantified by the WSJ — they now own 16 per cent of all billionaire wealth, versus 4 per cent in 2014. Talk about a new Gilded Age.

• And in the FT I enjoyed Bryce Elder’s Alphaville piece on how Trump likes to land on big, round numbers when making new announcements.

Alec Russell responds

I have a bleak answer to your opening question, Rana: this is a nightmare for Ukraine. I spent last week in Kyiv and then I was in Odesa just hours before that dire meeting in the Oval Office. Ukrainians increasingly fear they are going to confront a grim choice: do they have to sign off on a settlement which is tantamount to capitulation and could pave the way for Russia to invade them again, or do they fight on without their primary military backer, America?

To be clear the latter option is being taken very seriously, but it would be a terribly tough course to pursue. Most people I spoke to thought that Ukraine has enough arms to keep going for at least six months, not least given their success in manufacturing drones, which increasingly dominate the battlefield. But the potential loss of American intelligence, more air defences and Elon Musk’s Starlink would be a grievous blow to their war effort.

As for Ukrainians’ reaction to the Oval Office argument I will shamelessly refer you to my dispatch for FTWeekend. Society is exhausted after three years of war. But bear in mind two important factors. First, Ukrainians are remarkably steadfast in keeping going. The people of Kyiv and Odesa take the nightly Russian drone attacks in their stride. When the air raid siren went off the other evening, I was walking through the centre of the capital, past the magnificent St Sophia Cathedral. In front of me a couple walking their dog just kept going, and further on a man calmly continued scraping ice off his car.

The second factor is that Trump’s lambasting of Zelenskyy has given the Ukrainian president a fillip in the opinion polls. Time and again people have told me that it is absolutely fine for them to mock their president, not least because his government’s record is far from flawless. But, they add, it is definitely not OK for foreign leaders to lay into their war leader.

As for your last question, well I should probably duck that one given that as I write, Sir Keir Starmer, the UK prime minister, is hosting European leaders, including Zelenskyy, to discuss the next steps in trying to bring the war to an end. The latest idea on the table is for Britain and France to lead a peace process — crucially with Ukraine included — which they can present to America.

But even if — and it is a huge if — they can somehow pull this off, your last question about the thinking of US allies hangs awkwardly in the air. It’s a little early for a wholesale “rejiggering” (to use your wonderful term) of foreign policy. But one thing is starkly apparent. The idea of America as an ally has been unquestioned in Europe in 80 years. Now my continent is no longer so sure.