Six weeks ago, President Donald Trump could credibly say that he and his agenda were popular. His boasts of popular support were backed by data: Half of the country approved of the job he was doing for most of his first month on the job, according to polling averages. And though the share of Americans who disapproved gradually increased, he still maintained a net positive rating.
As Trump prepares to address a joint session of Congress Tuesday evening, roughly even shares of the country approve and disapprove of his presidency. The share of Americans who view him positively continues to drop. And it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll see a boost anytime soon.
Presidents generally enjoy a honeymoon period during the first few weeks of their new administrations — that period when a recently elected (or reelected) president is most popular and has the political capital to push for new legislation or policy. They typically get the benefit of the doubt from independents and some partisans from the opposition, while enjoying nearly universal approval from their own party.
But that time, historically, has been short for Trump. His positive average approval rating lasted longer this year than it did in 2017, when the public turned on him within a month of being inaugurated.
This Trump honeymoon lasted a little longer — boosted by Trump’s win of the popular vote and higher initial approval rating. And in both cases, he was starting from a pretty low point, meaning he had little room for error. For comparison, at this point during Joe Biden’s presidency, Biden was near the peak of his popularity.
How this unraveling happened is no great mystery: Views of the economy, and Trump’s handling of it, have taken a negative turn, and Americans largely think that the president isn’t giving enough attention to the issues that they care about. Paired with controversial policy positions, the perceived influence of Elon Musk, and a pretty small mandate to begin with, the public’s turn against Trump is right on time.
What recent polls say about Trump’s job performance
Taking a look at the most recent data paints a pretty clear picture. Americans, a majority of whom trusted Trump would be better for the economy and tackling inflation, are losing that trust.
When asked if the national economy is getting better or getting worse, the trend is negative: More Americans say conditions are getting worse, per Gallup tracking data. Similarly, during Trump’s first two months in office, the share of Americans who think the state of the economy is “excellent” or “good” has dropped from 26 percent to 20 percent.
Similarly, a February Reuters/Ipsos survey found Americans think the country’s economy is off track, with majorities thinking that the cost of living is still too high, and only 39 percent of Americans approving of Trump’s handling of the economy. A significantly larger share, 47 percent, disapprove. Trump also gets negative ratings for his handling of international trade, the job market, taxes, and inflation.
It’s a recurring theme over the last two weeks: The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows more Americans think Trump and his economic policies will change the economy “for the worse” (46 percent say so, compared to 42 percent who say they will change for the better). And an overwhelming share, nearly 60 percent of registered voters, think that grocery store prices are going to get more expensive over the next few months.
That these economic perceptions are dragging Trump down now makes a lot of sense — it’s something polls were warning about less than a month ago. In those surveys, Americans warned that they thought Trump was putting his focus in the wrong places, not working hard enough to provide economic relief and instead pushing to fulfill the most controversial parts of his vision for his second term.
Americans have remained consistent on this front: A CNN poll released on Monday shows that 52 percent of Americans think Trump “hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems. And CBS/YouGov polling gives some more specific details. Respondents thought Trump was focusing more on the border, reforming the federal workforce, and pushing for tariffs instead of tackling their highest priorities: lowering inflation and improving the economy in general.
Americans are also torn over what Trump is focusing on
Americans think Trump is actually giving his attention to immigration and federal workforce cuts. The public is divided on that focus — and wary of who is influencing Trump.
The CBS/YouGov poll finds that Trump’s reforms of the government are breaking through — some 81 percent think he’s making major changes — but a plurality say that those changes are “for the worse.”
They’re divided over these staffing cuts, but they don’t think Musk should have as much influence as he currently has over how these cuts are being conducted. More than half of Americans think Musk and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency have “too much” access to government data records, for example.
His immigration policy, meanwhile, remains the most popular of his policy moves. But it’s not the issue they want him to prioritize the most right now. These results are pretty consistent with what the data has been saying over the last few weeks. A month of shock-and-awe governance has turned off many independent and moderate voters, the group of voters largely contributing to his majority approval going into this term. And so Trump seems to be repeating some of the mistakes of his predecessor: assuming a narrow victory is proof that the country wants to see massive change and disruption. That doesn’t seem to be true.
