After a blistering showdown with US President Donald Trump in the White House last week, the intended optics of warm welcome of Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Brussels were clear.
Walking into the European Union summit flanked by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa on either, the arrival of Ukraine’s president was a vision of unity.
Zelenskyy, who was reprimanded in Washington for alleged ingratitude, was at pains to express his thanks to European leaders this time round.
“We are not alone. These are not just words — we feel it,” he said.
Von der Leyen spoke of a “watershed moment” for Europe and Ukraine.
“Europe faces a clear and present danger, and therefore Europe has to be able to protect itself, to defend itself, we have to put Ukraine in a position to protect itself and to push for lasting and just peace,” she told reporters.
But despite all the smiles and firm handshakes, as EU leaders hunkered down on Thursday night to discuss how to massively boost their defense spending and how to help Ukraine after the US suspended military and financial aid, alarming developments from the outside world continued to pile up.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry snubbed a ceasefire proposal backed by Ukraine, France and Britain in recent days, and the Kremlin accused French President Emmanuel Macron of warmongering. Macron had tried to stir debate about whether French nuclear weapons could serve as a deterrent for other EU countries as the US, which has around 100 warheads stationed in the bloc, disengages.
Meanwhile, Trump once again questioned whether the US would defend NATO members if they were attacked, which is the central promise of the Western military alliance.
“If you’re not going to pay, we’re not going to defend,” Trump said, chastising alliance members who do not meet the target of spending 2% of gross domestic product on defense.
Despite the US’s apparent change of stance on Ukraine, European leaders are still publicly appealing for trans-Atlantic cooperation and working to turn things around. Zelenskyy signaled on Thursday that he could hold fresh talks with the US next week, and there is still hope the US could soften its stance toward Europe.
Nonetheless, EU countries are also seriously considering how they would cope without the US underwriting their security for the first time in decades.
Go-ahead for massive defense investment funding plan
On Thursday, the 27 leaders gave the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, the green light to move ahead with a plan to drum up close to €800 billion ($870 billion) of additional defense investment in the EU in the coming years.
Earlier this week, von der Leyen proposed suspending part of the EU’s strict fiscal rules to give national governments more space to spend on defense, setting up a new €150 billion loan instrument to support joint procurement among EU member states, reassigning funds from the EU budget and mobilizing more private capital.
Under the plan, most of the money would come from member states, which could take on more debt than usual, specifically for defense spending, without being penalized.
The European Commission will continue working on the actual legal proposal before another summit later this month.
Message to Kyiv, but no new cash — yet
Zelenskyy, who spoke with EU leaders for one-and-a-half hours at the start of the talks, may walk away feeling more assured. The EU reiterated its support for Ukraine once again in a statement signed off by all members but one: Hungary.
It spoke, among other things, of the “readiness of member states to urgently step up efforts to address Ukraine’s pressing military and defense needs, in particular the delivery of air defense systems, ammunition and missiles, the provision of necessary training and equipment for Ukrainian brigades, and other needs that Ukraine may have.”
The conclusions of EU summits are generally unanimously approved, but even before the gathering, diplomats made clear they would move on quickly without Hungarian President Viktor Orban if necessary.
Hungary, which has the closest relationship with Russia of any EU state, has repeatedly held up decisions on sanctions against Russia and aid packages for Ukraine when all other 26 EU states were ready to proceed. He has been backing Trump’s recent overtures to Russia and efforts to strike a deal to end the war without involving Ukraine or the EU.
Despite this, two senior EU diplomats told DW in the run-up to talks that in the coming weeks, the EU could offer a fresh chunk of money in addition to the €30 billion it has already committed to Ukraine for this year. Costa, the European Council president, also indicated at the end of the summit that more money could be on the way.
“Several member states have already announced their pledges up to €15 billion,” he told reporters.
Will it be enough?
The EU has debated how to increase its defense expenditures for years. Most of the 27 EU countries are also members of NATO, who face a defense spending target of 2% of their gross domestic product. However, many fall short of that target.
In light of the shift in the White House, several member states have indicated they will significantly increase defense spending.
The most dramatic turnaround came from Germany, with the country’s likely next chancellor, conservative Friedrich Merz, indicating willingness to rewrite the German constitution to loosen debt rules to spend more on the military.
“There are no frugals anymore when it comes to defense,” one senior EU diplomat told DW on the condition of anonymity on the sidelines of the EU talks, using the Brussels’ jargon to denote countries most cautious to take on debt to finance public spending.
Moreover, EU officials have already made clear that more will follow in the weeks ahead. Later this month, the European Commission will present a white paper on defense that could outline more ideas.
Was it the watershed moment von der Leyen touted? At the very least, consensus among EU leaders around the need to hugely step up defense investment has evidently been established, even with Hungary.
“We may disagree on the modalities of peace, we do agree that we must strengthen the defense capabilities of European nations, and these efforts should empower member states rather than Brussels bureaucrats,” the Orban posted on X ahead the summit.
But other matters remain more divisive. The question of seizing the Russian assets frozen in the west to aid Ukraine, for example, or Macron’s proposal to consider using French nuclear weapons as a Europe-wide deterrent, for example
The messages from the US may be deeply mixed, but the EU was evident on Thursday — at least without Hungary.
“We have been with Ukraine since day one. We have already provided more than €135 billion in support to Ukraine since 2022. Our support is unwavering,” Costa said. “If the war continues. In any future peace negotiations. In reconstruction, in accession to the European Union.”
Edited by: Davis Van Opdorp
