As Poland prepares to take over the EU’s rotating presidency for six months on January 1, the threads of Europe’s diplomatic spider web are meeting in Warsaw more often than usual.
French President Emmanuel Macron was in the Polish capital on Thursday, just days after his trilateral meeting in Paris with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President-elect Donald Trump.
It was an important visit for Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk at a critical time for both Poland and Europe.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Poland’s neighbor Germany has been notably missing from Warsaw’s list of recent meetings.
Faced with a power vacuum in Germany since the collapse of its coalition government last month, right-wing politicians in power in Central and Eastern Europe and Trump’s imminent return to the White House, Tusk has shifted his focus further northward and westward.
Closer cooperation with northern Europe not enough
After taking part in the NB8 summit of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries in Sweden for the first time two weeks ago, Tusk signaled that Poland is willing to expand its cooperation with the Nordic and Baltic countries.
But as Swedish analyst Gunilla Herolf told DW during the recent Baltic crisis involving a Chinese-owned merchant ship and damaged underwater cables, even together, the Nordic and Baltic countries are too weak to stand on their own against Russian hostile activities.
The same goes for Poland, which, despite its recent military spending (4.2% of its GDP this year and 4.7% next year), cannot assume the role of Europe’s biggest security provider alone.
European heavyweight needed
Tusk may hope that by mounting a pro-Ukrainian, pro-defense European coalition of the willing, he can make his country’s role in assisting Ukraine more visible to the West and make his get his appeals for EU funding for fortifications along Poland’s eastern border heard.
“Except for the non-EU member United Kingdom, such a coalition would lack a heavyweight European player. With France onboard, however, things start to look completely different,” Pawel Zerka, a Polish analyst at the Paris branch of the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) told DW.
“France plays a constructive and important role in Western support for Kyiv. Without Paris, the coalition of the willing might be more prone to dissolve,” said Zerka.
Importance of EU’s eastern border
Tusk stressed the importance of strengthening Poland’s eastern border: “To put it bluntly, Poland bears the biggest burden among the EU countries with regard to the war in Ukraine. The key assistance hub is in Poland and I want to make it clear to everyone in Europe and in Kyiv that Poland took upon itself the burden of defending the EU’s eastern border,” he said.
Poland’s importance with regard to support for Ukraine is not lost on the French president: “Macron came to Warsaw not because Poland suddenly became a superpower, but because it counts — as Ukraine’s neighbor, as a country that will soon take the presidency of the EU Council and as one of the few large EU countries with a stable government — in contrast to Germany,” Zerka told DW.
No plans for European peacekeeping force for now
Both despite and because of his domestic political troubles, the French president is, as always, willing to play a prominent role in European politics.
Macron brought Tusk — whom he called a “friend” and “dear Donald” — a message of support and respect, two things the West knows the Polish authorities crave.
Tusk strongly rebuffed recent media rumors that Poland and France are already in talks about the potential stationing of a multinational force of 40,000 peacekeepers in Ukraine after any future peace deal and that Poland might be at the helm of one of the reportedly projected five brigades.
Western boots on Ukrainian soil is not a new idea. Macron suggested it as early as February and repeated it in November at a meeting with UK prime minister Keir Starmer.
But Tusk was categorical: “Decisions on Polish actions will be made in Warsaw and in Warsaw only. We are not planning such actions as of now,” he said. “We will work with France and others on solutions that will, first of all, secure Europe and Ukraine from a resumption of the conflict if an agreement on a truce and possibly peace can be reached.”
Reinforcing Polish–French relations
Tusk and Macron announced that the new bilateral Polish–French treaty will be signed during Poland’s presidency of the EU Council in the French city of Nancy, a place that is symbolic of the Polish–French friendship.
There was a lot of agreement between the two leaders, too: Both Macron and Tusk stressed that any deals concerning Ukraine must not be made without Ukraine.
They also condemned recent election interferences in Moldova, Georgia and Romania. Macron underlined the Western awareness of hybrid attacks by entities linked to Russia and emphasized the importance of cybersecurity.
For his part, Tusk was adamant that “it is the voters who will elect the presidents in Poland and in France, not the Kremlin and not Putin.”
Trump-proofing Europe, Poland and Ukraine
Both presidents are, however, acutely aware of the influence both the Russian and American presidents have on Europe’s security.
Another reason for Macron’s visit to Warsaw was, therefore, to report on his recent meeting with Trump and Zelenskyy in Paris.
Macron stated that the “the Trump administration has indicated its willingness to try to change the course of this conflict,” which is why the Europeans “must work closely with the US administration, obviously in close contact with the Ukrainians, to find a possible path that takes into account Ukraine’s and Europe’s interests and its sovereignty.”
If there is one place where Macron’s idea of making Europe directly financially and militarily responsible for both its own security and that of Ukraine would be met with applause, it is Donald Trump’s White House.
Trump has said that there’s a possibility of the US leaving NATO, but that he would “absolutely” stay in if the US is treated fairly and other alliance members pay their way.
Preparing for Trump’s return
By giving the president-elect the opportunity to make a grand return to the international stage during the celebrations marking the re-opening of Notre Dame cathedral, Paris hopes to reestablish itself as a key player in transatlantic relations.
If it works, then close cooperation with France would be invaluable for the current Polish government, which is perfectly aware that Trump does not count it among his key allies and might need Macron as a middleman in seeking to get what it wants from Trump.
In the meantime, Warsaw and Kyiv are attempting to repair their relations, which took a turn for the worse under Poland’s previous national-conservative PiS government and got off to a rough start under the Tusk administration.
Tusk plans to go to Ukraine, and Zelenskyy to Poland at the start of 2025. The efforts of both leaders are fueled by uncertainty about whether Trump would take into account their interests while trying to rapidly end the war in Ukraine on his terms.
Warsaw, Paris and Kyiv know they are in a race against the clock to Trump-proof Europe.
Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan
