On January 1, Hungary will pass the baton of the European Union’s six-month rotating presidency to Poland, drawing a curtain on what has been a turbulent half-year for the bloc.
Instead of acting as a neutral mediator, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban set out on a collision course with Brussels and angered his partners with his willful “peace mission” and surprise visits to Moscow, Kyiv and Beijing that were not agreed in advance.
“Poland’s presidency of the EU Council will be a counterpoint to what has happened over the past six months,” predicts Eastern Europe expert Kai-Olaf Lang of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.
Lang told DW that this would, above all, apply to the EU’s security policy and relations with Ukraine and Russia.
‘No one can outplay me’
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is a highly experienced European politician. He was president of the European Council from 2014 to 2019 and subsequently president of the transnational European People’s Party (EPP), the largest party in the European Parliament.
After eight years of government led by the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, Tusk’s alliance won the general election in Poland just over a year ago. In his very first government statement after assuming the post of Polish prime minister in December 2023, he boldly declared that “No one can outplay me in the EU.”
‘Europe speaks our language’
The presidency of the Council of the EU is the perfect opportunity for Tusk to show that his claim is more than just words and that 20 years after joining the EU, Poland is no longer an apprentice but can even show some of the “older” member states how it’s done.
“We are credible. Europe speaks our language,” said Adam Szlapka, Poland’s Minister for the EU, recently when he presented the country’s priorities for its presidency of the EU Council. Szlapka added that his country has become an “expert for the greatest challenges” facing the West.
Strong arguments on security
For months now, the thread running through Tusk’s speeches has been the call to make the security policy of Poland and other countries on NATO’s eastern flank the policy of the entire EU.
“We should foster our relations with the US, but Europe must become independent, must stand on its own two feet. The time is now to end the era of fear of Russia and uncertainty,” he said before the NB8 summit of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries in Sweden in late November.
Poland certainly leads the way in terms of defense spending. It currently devotes 4.2% of its GDP to defense and intends to up this to 4.7% in 2025.
This is not only a strong argument to put to other EU states but also for future discussions with US President-elect Donald Trump, who has called for greater commitment from his European partners.
No peace over Ukraine’s head
Tusk is determined to prevent any possible peace negotiations on an end to the war in Ukraine being conducted over the heads of Ukrainians and exclusively between the US and Russia. He also wants the EU to have a seat at the negotiating table.
“Our presidency of the EU Council will be jointly responsible for the situation of the negotiations, which could begin this winter,” he said in early December. “Ukraine must be present at every (round of) talks. Our friends in Kyiv must also accept every variant, every proposal,” Tusk said after a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Warsaw on December 12.
To be prepared for all eventualities, Poland is constructing a line of defense called “East Shield” along its border with Belarus and would like Europe to help finance it. Warsaw is also involved in the European air defense initiative known as European Sky Shield.
Tusk’s government favors Euro bonds for defense, but the idea of running up new EU debt is extremely controversial in the bloc. Germany and the Netherlands are particularly opposed to the idea.
Ukraine pushing to join the EU
A year after the European Council decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, Poland wants to kick-start the talks. Minister Szlapka suggested that talks could begin by focusing on the rule of law, human rights and the fight against corruption.
While Kyiv is pushing for talks to begin in as many areas as possible, Warsaw does not want to rush into anything.
This is because Poland is once again in election campaign mode: A new president is due to be elected next May.
The importance of the election for Tusk’s center-left coalition government cannot be overstated. This is why Tusk will not risk launching any European projects that are unpopular at home and could be used against him by the opposition.
Domestic political constraints
Tusk’s start as prime minister this time last year coincided with massive farmers’ protests against the import of grain from Ukraine. Blockades were set up at both the Polish-Ukrainian and Polish-German borders.
Ukraine is hoping for a trade agreement that would resolve the issue of imports into the EU for several years. However, Poland is unlikely to make concessions to Ukraine in this area.
Poland is also a staunch opponent of the free trade agreement with South America and is likely to do everything in its power to prevent the agreement from being implemented in its planned form. In this, Warsaw has powerful allies, including France.
A possible amendment of European treaties to allow for more majority decisions within the EU is also controversial in Poland, which means it is not a priority for the country’s presidency of the EU. Poland’s national-conservative opposition views this plan as a dissolution of the Polish state.
“No, we will not work on that [an amendment of the treaties]. I don’t think the Council is interested in that,” Poland’s ambassador to the EU, Agnieszka Bartol, told the Polish news agency PAP.
Situation in Germany and France has an impact
Tusk is also highly skeptical about the European Green Deal developed by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The deal seeks to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions in the EU to zero by 2050.
Tusk has said that “naive ambitions to save the entire planet” are hampering Europe’s competitiveness in the world. “Decarbonization cannot be achieved by de-industrialization,” Minister Szlapka added, warning that citizens’ acceptance of climate policies is waning.
Poland’s presidency of the EU Council coincides with domestic political crises in both Germany and France. Tusk wants to use the weakness of these two European powerhouses to bolster his country’s status.
“Poland is being extremely proactive in terms of positioning itself. However, coalitions with the Nordic and Baltic states will not be enough,” warns Eastern Europe expert Lang.
“Poland will present itself as a pro-Europe country that is willing to shape things,” says Lang. “At the same time, however, Poland will see over and over again that economic and political handicaps in Germany and France will be a stumbling block that prevents Europe from moving forward.”
This article was originally published in German.
