As a debate intensifies in several European countries over Elon Musk’s attempts to influence domestic politics, a separate discussion is ongoing about the world’s richest person: His growing influence in the global satellites sector.
The Italian government is currently in advanced negotiations with Musk’s SpaceX company for a €1.6 billion ($1.65 billion) deal to provide encrypted telecommunications services via its Starlink satellite internet provider.
Italy’s government has confirmed that talks are ongoing. The talks have led to controversy, with opposition politicians accusing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of compromising national security.
Namrata Goswami, an independent space policy scholar, thinks this type of deal will become “the new normal” because Starlink provides fast and reliable satellite internet and secure telecommunications with true global reach.
“So what governments look for, especially in terms of, say, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, communication, those communications are supposedly more encrypted and secure based on what SpaceX is offering,” she told DW.
SpaceX owns the skies
Meloni recently met US President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago base, and has established close relationships with both Trump and Musk. She said any suggestion she had discussed the Starlink deal during the trip was “simply ridiculous.”
Yet Elon Musk’s courting of Meloni could see him extend his already considerable influence in the sector of what are known as low Earth orbit satellites, which orbit Earth at an altitude of 2,000 km (1,200 miles) or less. Satellites in that orbit are very useful for telecommunications and internet provision.
Last year, SpaceX added more than 20 countries to its customer base for Starlink, meaning it now provides services in more than 100 countries and territories. It currently has almost 7,000 active satellites in space.
Much of its internet provision is for businesses and consumers. However, some national governments also use Starlink for their own communications and military applications. The US Department of Defense uses a specific service called Starshield, designed for some government and military agencies. Ukraine has also made extensive use of the Starlink service during the war with Russia.
According to Goswami, the Ukraine war example means many other national governments will seek to bring Starlink in for military communications.
“When it comes to military, I think what we are going to see going forward is that nations in Europe, but also nations in Asia, will look to sign or ink deals with Starshield, if not Starlink, to be able to utilize that military communication,” she said.
A new frontier
However, a deal for SpaceX to provide a major EU government with communications services would be a new departure. It could also bring Italy into conflict with the EU’s space strategy.
Last month the European Commission signed the contract to establish IRIS², a plan to place 260 of its satellites in both low and medium Earth orbit by 2030. The idea is that those satellites will provide EU member states with secure telecommunications.
A spokesperson for the European Commission told DW that while EU governments will not be obliged to use the service, it is “a concrete answer to the growing demand by the Union’s governmental actors for secure, sovereign, and reliable spaced-based satellite communication services.”
There are no EU rules prohibiting EU governments from using certain satellite or internet services, including Starlink.
The spokesperson made it clear that Italy could proceed with Starlink if it so wished but it emphasized the country’s strong role in the establishment of IRIS².
“On a purported agreement between Italy and Starlink, the Commission does not comment as a matter of principle on discussions of this kind,” the spokesperson said. “Italy is a sovereign state taking sovereign decisions. Incidentally, Italy is poised to be hosting one of the three IRIS² control centers.”
Concerns over Musk’s role
Musk’s success with SpaceX and Starlink has seen him take a firm grip on the global satellites sector, according to Goswami. She says SpaceX’s ability to produce reusable rockets means their launch capabilities leave them way ahead of their opposition.
Referring specifically to the SpaceX Starship, Musk’s development of a huge reusable rocket with vast heavy-lift capabilities, she said: “If Starship is successful, then they’ll be able to launch even more. So they’re very dominant in this particular field.”
However, both China and India are working on developing rivals to Starlink and have already made major advancements in the area. “If India and China catches up, they will be able to offer, in their perspective, a cheaper and a much more viable to nations, for example, in the developing world,” says Goswami.
As for Musk and concerns over how his deals with governments such as Italy could impact global geopolitical security, she says that his growing involvement in politics points to a clear risk.
She sees a potential issue in the possibility of him having the power to limit a government or military’s use of Starlink, if he disagrees with them politically.
“There has to be some security that they cannot just cut off a particular service just because they do not like a particular nation’s policies,” she says. “That’s my concern because he’s so powerful that he might want to influence his own company’s decision of who they support and who they don’t.”
Edited by: Uwe Hessler
