Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico has provoked a bitter spat with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over Kyiv’s refusal to renew a contract to carry Russian gas into Europe that expired at the end of last year.
Fico caused shock in December when he visited Moscow and was photographed smiling alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin — who he said has been “wrongly demonized” by the West — in the hope of keeping cheap energy flowing to Slovakia.
Fico’s bullish antics have annoyed both Kyiv and Slovakia’s EU partners.
At home, fury has been building, exacerbating a crisis in the governing coalition and encouraging Slovakia’s squabbling pro-Western opposition parties to come together in a bid to unseat him.
Why is Russian gas so important to Slovakia?
Although Ukraine’s decision to halt the transit of Russian gas was no surprise, it still hit Slovakia hard.
Transit fees from the Eustream pipeline, which for years collected Russian gas at the Ukraine-Slovak border and carried it to Austrian hubs, was feeding Bratislava an estimated — and much-needed — €500 million annually.
Nevertheless, Fico — like Slovakia’s previous dysfunctional pro-Western government — has done nothing to diversify the country’s gas supply, which remains dependent on Russian imports.
This is in contrast to most other EU member states, which have weaned themselves off Russian supplies over the last three years.
Escalating row between Bratislava and Kyiv
Fico instead blames Ukraine, saying its refusal to renew the gas transit contract will send his country’s gas bill soaring and threaten the entire EU economy.
He has called the Ukrainian leader a beggar and blackmailer, and threatened to block his country’s ambition to join both the EU and NATO, halt electricity exports and end aid for Ukrainian refugees.
For his part, Zelenskyy insists that Ukraine will not allow Russia to “earn additional billions on our blood.” He has also called out the shortsightedness of Fico’s “shadowy schemes with Moscow.”
Little support from EU partners
Fico’s efforts to persuade Brussels — usually a target for his withering disdain — to put pressure on Kyiv have met with little success.
What’s more, Fico has managed to irritate Slovakia’s EU partners.
The foreign minister of the Czech Republic, Slovakia’s neighbor and historically its closest ally, noted that it had dumped Russian gas “so that we wouldn’t have to crawl in front of a mass murderer.”
Opposition on the streets
Fico’s pro-Russian path is nothing new. Appealing to residual sympathy for Moscow among a significant section of the population, he pledged in the run-up to the general election that put him back in office last October not to send “a single bullet” to Ukraine.
He has since dedicated himself to pursuing “peace” in Ukraine — widely viewed as a means of allowing Moscow to set terms — criticizing EU support for Kyiv and branding anyone with a different view a “warmonger.”
However, his pro-Russian stance has now swollen ongoing street protests over his government’s authoritarian policies, with rallies now marching under the banner “Slovakia is Europe.”
Opposition in parliament
Michal Simecka, leader of the Progressive Slovakia (PS) opposition party, told DW that Fico is betraying his country.
“This government threatens our credibility with EU and NATO partners,” he warned. “People in Slovakia want a European future. They definitely don’t want to be pulled towards Moscow.”
Fico’s flirtation with Moscow has also aggravated tension that has been festering for months within the three-party coalition government, which has already seen its majority shrink to a razor-thin 76 of the 150 seats in parliament.
Some lawmakers from Hlas (a center-left junior coalition partner) who have already refused to back the government in previous votes have voiced anger at Fico’s Moscow jaunt.
President Peter Pellegrini, a Fico protégé and the former leader of Hlas, is now embroiled in a bitter war of words with the PM.
Indeed, the coalition crisis has become so serious that Fico this week challenged his partners to get themselves back in line under the threat of scrapping the government himself.
The government office in Bratislava did not respond to a request for comment.
Opposition parties smell blood
Unsurprisingly, the opposition smells blood.
On January 14, it demanded a no-confidence vote, accusing Fico — who disappeared over Christmas and New Year only to be discovered holidaying in a luxury resort in Vietnam — of neglecting governance and undermining foreign policy by tilting the country towards Russia.
The vote on January 21 looks set to be tight. While the coalition still formally enjoys a one-seat majority, it’s unclear if it will be able to command it.
Uncertain outcome
Viera Zuborova at the Bratislava Policy Institute suggested to DW that the opposition is unlikely to win the no-confidence vote.
The Hlas rebels have suggested that they will not support the motion. However, they also warned that they will not stand for any questioning of EU and NATO membership as a foreign policy anchor.
However, with horse-trading underway, Zuborova pointed out that “history proves anything is possible in Slovak politics.”
Should early elections follow, polls suggest a tight race. The government’s controversial policies have helped mobilize liberal voters, making PS currently the most popular party in Slovakia, with support of around 23%.
Support for Fico’s party, Smer, is lagging at 19% thanks to a plethora of ministerial gaffes and a harsh tax package designed to shore up public coffers that are looking perilously empty.
“Fico is using the gas row and visit to Putin to deflect attention from his failure to tame inflation or deal with a collapsing healthcare system,” claims Michal Simecka. “The number of people seeing this grows by the day.”
Nevertheless, putting together a pro-Western government would be tricky. Slovakia’s fractious opposition parties have over the years repeatedly demonstrated an innate inability to maintain discipline.
Putin would likely prefer Fico to remain in charge. However, even if Fico falls, Moscow will have achieved what analysts see as its wider aim, namely to spread chaos and division within the EU.
Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan
