Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has said that his country can “play a leading role in the global energy market” and “become a dynamic energy-exporting economy in the coming years.” Gas production in the Ionian Sea will evidently be a major part of this scenario.
In his weekly Facebook post on January 26, he called the interest shown by US energy giant Chevron in exploring the area southwest of the Peloponnese region “an important development.”
Five years ago, another American energy giant, ExxonMobil, also expressed a similar interest and was granted a license for exploratory drilling.
Does Greece have major gas deposits?
Preliminary estimates suggest that the gas deposits in the maritime area stretching from southwest of the Peloponnese to south of the island of Crete could be as big as those in Egypt’s offshore Zohr gas field.
A study conducted by the Institute of Energy for South-East Europe says that Greece’s estimated commercially exploitable potential gas resources amount to 2–2.5 trillion cubic meters — enough to cover 15% of Europe’s gas needs.
This, unsurprisingly, has attracted the attention of the US energy giants. And their interest has grown since Donald Trump was re-elected president and his “Drill, baby, drill!” mantra caught on with other heads of government, including Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
A change in Greece’s energy policy?
Not so long ago, the Greek PM threw his weight behind the country’s green energy transition.
In an address to the General Assembly of the United Nations in 2019, Mitsotakis stressed Greece’s commitment to addressing climate change and announced the closure of all lignite power plants by the end of 2028.
Around this time, he also said that the government’s aim was to increase the proportion of electricity produced by renewables to over 90% of Greece’s electricity mix by 2030. After the 9th Our Ocean Conference in Athens last year, his government even said that no more concessions for oil and gas exploration would be granted.
Then it became clear that the energy crisis — and, with it, rising electricity and gas prices — would last longer than anticipated.
In addition, Donald Trump was re-elected president of the United States. Since then, the Greek prime minister has been gradually revising his earlier official declarations that the green transition is a one-way street.
He now supports the production of natural gas, and the Greek government is willing to issue more licenses for exploratory drilling — preferably to American companies, which would be in Trump’s interest.
It is also symbolic that Athens announced Chevron’s interest in exploration on the day of Trump’s inauguration.
Environmentalists cry double standards
Greek environmental organizations responded with criticism, pointing out that that deep-sea mining is not compatible with the previously proclaimed green transition.
“The hasty interest of the oil giant Chevron in proceeding with hydrocarbon extraction in Greece, combined with the immediate positive response from the Greek government, at best shows a double standard from the government that presents itself as green, as a pioneer in the green transition,” said WWF Greece.
The people in coastal regions who live off tourism and fishing are concerned about the possibility of an environmental disaster. They have in the past opposed drilling in the region and may well seek an injunction that would temporarily halt exploratory work.
Deputy minister seeks to reassure residents
Deputy Minister of Environment and Energy Alexandra Sdoukou sought to reassure those directly affected by the plans.
Speaking on the state-owned television channel ERT, she claimed that “companies with so many years of experience at global level would never risk testing procedures for exploiting hydrocarbon deposits that harbor even the slightest risk of anything leaking into the sea that would lead of a major environmental disaster.”
She expressed her great faith in Chevron and other oil and gas companies, stressed that environmental protection was her government’s top priority, and pointed to her ministry’s control mechanisms.
“Because the exploitation of hydrocarbon deposits exists alongside other activities such as fishery and tourism, it is obvious that we have to keep our eyes one hundred times more open to ensure that this will work,” she said.
In ten years at the earliest
However, many in Greece have little faith in the state’s control mechanisms and do not believe that drilling will begin in the Ionian Sea any time soon.
Harry Tzimitras, a Greek expert for conflict resolution, energy security and geopolitics at the independent research service PRIO Cyprus Centre, agrees. Tzimitras is convinced that if at all, drilling will begin in ten years at the earliest, because energy corporations will first have to decide whether it is really worthwhile.
First, exploratory drilling has to establish how much gas there actually is.
Second, buyers have to be found for the gas deposits because no energy corporation would make a major investment without first having signed contracts with future buyers.
Third, banks have to be persuaded to invest the necessary money. Tzimitras says that energy corporations provide a maximum 30% of the investment capital needed for such projects; the rest comes from banks.
“If Chevron and Co. decide to drill in the Ionian Sea, and if the people in the region don’t succeed in getting an injunction against them, we’re talking about a time horizon of ten years,” he told DW, adding that right now, no one knows what the political, economic and environmental situation will be in 2035.
Tzimitras also points out that despite the fact that energy corporations have been expressing interest in drilling in and around Greece and Cyprus since 2011, not a single cubic meter of gas has actually been brought to the surface.
This article was originally published in German.
