Anti-government protests are expected to take place in over 50 towns and cities across Slovakia on Friday.
The planned demonstrations are part of a series of protests that rapidly grew and spread after Prime Minister Robert Fico’s December visit to Moscow, where he was pictured shaking hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Fico’s pro-Russian stance has provoked fears that he seeks to pull the country away from the European Union and NATO and towards the east.
The protests have also been fed by government policies that many feel are weakening democratic values in the country and an ugly and festering public spat with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The current turmoil is fueling a crisis within Slovakia’s governing coalition and, with Fico appearing increasingly panicked, the threat of a government collapse is growing.
An unnerved prime minister
This is not the first time that Fico has faced such a concerted and major display of public anger. In 2018, he was ejected from a third term in the PM’s chair by massive demonstrations.
Aware that populist nationalism and pro-Russian rhetoric were the drivers of his return to power in late 2023, the combative premier has responded by seeking to expand support for his nominally left-leaning Smer party.
“Smer has lost a lot of moderate support, so Fico is using extremist rhetoric and a pro-Russian stance to try to attract more radical voters, of which there are a fair number in Slovakia,” Radoslav Stefancik, a political scientist at the University of Economics in Bratislava, told DW.
Fico’s scare tactics
Declaring that his opponents are part of a foreign-led attempted coup, the premier last month stamped on an opposition bid to hold a no-confidence vote, seeking to intimidate both critics and disobedient partners within the ruling coalition.
He has since announced plans to push through anti-EU and anti-LGBTQ+ changes to the constitution. This response has only raised the level of alarm among Slovakia’s pro-Western population and parties.
The government’s media office did not respond to a request for comment.
Analysts suggest that Fico’s scare tactics are unlikely to stop people from taking to the streets once again on Friday. More than 100,000 people across the country rallied under the banner “Slovakia is Europe” on January 24.
Whether he will be able to enforce discipline among lawmakers from Smer’s coalition partners — Hlas, a social democratic party that broke away from Smer in 2020, and the radical-right Slovak National Party (SNS) — is another matter.
Will the coalition hold?
Bogged down in crisis for months amid dysfunction and bickering over senior posts, the turbulence over foreign policy has helped to further threaten the coalition’s majority, which is now razor-thin. Hoping to tip it over the edge, the opposition is again pushing for a no-confidence vote.
“Fico’s coalition, which is damaging for Slovakia, is steadily deteriorating,” Michal Simecka, leader of the main opposition Progressive Slovakia (PS) party, told DW. “We’re convinced that a political change is within reach.”
But for now, at least, analysts feel the coalition is likely to hold.
They note that while many members of the coalition may be disgruntled, they are not at present enthusiastic about risking their role in government, even if its incoherence and struggles to deal with crises in the budget or healthcare system are on full display.
Erratic behavior and increasing extremism
“The turmoil being created by Fico appears something of a gambit to press his coalition partners to get back in line and allow him to reshuffle a government that is full of inexperienced people who are causing huge problems,” Viera Zuborova at the Bratislava Policy Institute told DW.
However, the premier’s increasing extremism is unsettling moderates, some of whom have stated that they will not stand by should Slovakia’s membership of the EU or NATO be seriously questioned.
The PM’s erratic behavior is another threat to government stability, with critics condemning his increasing aggression, paranoia and repetition of conspiracy theories.
More than 100 psychiatrists and psychologists signed an open letter last month expressing concern over Fico’s mental health since an attempted assassination in May.
Fico has suggested that, having failed to kill him physically, the opposition was now attempting a political murder.
Uncertainty about what happens next
That leaves few expecting he will manage to hold the government together for long.
“It’s not clear what exactly will happen, but I think we will have snap elections sometime this year,” Andrej Matisak, a senior editor at the Slovak daily newspaper Pravda told DW. “The government’s majority is now very shaky and I can’t imagine they can govern for another two-and-a-half years.”
What could follow a government collapse is unclear, but few are optimistic.
Stefancik suggests that Fico’s turn toward Moscow may partially be seen as a bid to secure assistance in the next election campaign, of the kind pro-Russian candidates are recently alleged to have received in elections in Romania and Moldova.
With Simecka’s PS currently ahead in the polls with support of around 23% and Fico’s Smer losing ground, the opposition parties might just be able to secure enough votes to form a government.
However, Slovaks well remember the last administration cobbled together by the fragmented liberal parties.
Squabbling and inept, its failures saw it fall apart, opening the door for Fico’s unlikely return from the political wilderness about 18 months ago.
Deepening political crisis
If Slovakia does end up going to the polls, it’s likely that Hlas would once again hold the key to the formation of a government, as it did in 2023. Hlas’s founder, Peter Pellegrini, stepped down as party leader last year to become Slovak president.
But for many, Hlas has no clear-cut identity. While there are factions within the party that are genuinely progressive; others are just Smer in a slightly different guise.
“The opposition could try to persuade Hlas to swap sides to enjoy a better image both at home and abroad, but it’s unlikely,” says Zuborova. “The party had the chance to do just that following the last election, but chose to side with Fico.”
All of this leaves Slovakia mired in political instability and facing an immediate future that looks far from bright.
“The country is heading towards a deepening political crisis, where Fico’s coalition is increasingly unable to govern but is unwilling to give up power,” says Andrius Tursa of Teneo Intelligence, a London-based risk consultancy. “Meanwhile, extreme levels of social and political polarization will keep protest-related risks high.”
Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan
